Monday, March 31, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Struggle Continues - Week 1 of April 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Index continues its consolidation after the 'Opening White Marubozu' of last week on the EOW #W1, month candle goes red again #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls resisted near the current ATH, Index takes support at the Daily channel bottom #D1. 
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA deflect bearishly #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders to the 50s #W2.
  • True Strength Indicator struggles to stay under the 74.6% Fibonacci retrace (between its High and Low) on the long term charts #M1


Wrap:
Bears defend current ATH - Bulls close the week inside the Day channel #D1 



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The second weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) of March is now active - it continued the consolidation process last week #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Week Charts (1836) #W1, continues as support for the Bulls for the 7th week now, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bullish cross or Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 is on the cards as they are in close proximity. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping below the over-bought zone, works for the Bears #D2. 
  • TSI staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace line, favors the Bulls #M2.


Wrap:
Bears hope to get below 1836 - Bulls need the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Stand-off near ATH - Week 1 of April 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues but now closer to the ATH #W2.

Senoku Span A & B gap narrows mildly #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also narrows mildly #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index on pause near ATH, advantage Bulls #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Gap between Senoku Span A & B, if holding steady or increasing - good for Bulls #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears look to visit the Kumo #W3.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - EOW Channel Folds - Week 1 of April 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles formed a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1. Bulls near March end with a break-out new high.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index finally and decisively clears the earlier EOW channel top as also the Monthly Pivot's R2 #D1. Index moves now in a steeper up-channel as drawn #W1. 
  • The deflection point of he 13 SMA & 5EMa on the EOD #D1 was support for Bulls. 
Moving Averages:
  • The short term 5 EMA bullishly deflects off 13 SMA early in the week, to setup the break-out bull move #D1. 
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA also deflect #D2, TRD nudging above the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.
  • Volume for this up-move (month) has been average #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls control all screens - Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active and has produced a breakout new High.  
Support & Resistance:
  • The current support is the April'14 Wall i.e. 6642 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere)
  • New EOW Channel top is now resistance for the Bulls #W1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.  
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace boosts bulls #M2. MACD sliding below its MA favors Bears #D2.


Wrap:
Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1Bulls look to stay above the April Wall (6642) and reach day channel top.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls soar after pause - Week 1 of April 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls break-out to new All Time Highs again #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen increases as in a broad deflection #W2
Chikou Span also makes a new High #W1.  


Wrap: Index soars after the pause, to a new ATH
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span dipping now would set up a easy meeting with the price-line #W1.
Early Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes for a bull party #W2. Proximity of these two lines however, keeps the Bulls on the edge.


Wrap: Bears like the Chikou Span below the Price line. Bulls focus on widening the gap between the
Tenkan sen and the Kijun Sen after the deflection #W2.



Monday, March 24, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Continuum - Week 4 of March 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 21 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 21 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 21 Mar'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Index forms another weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' #W1, month candle goes green #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls resisted near the current ATH, Index closes above the Daily 13 SMA #D1. 
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA meet #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, continues to meander in the 60s #W2.
  • We shall use the True Strength Indicator (with a Fibonacci between its High and Low) on the long term charts #M1


Wrap:
Bears defend current ATH - Bulls close the week above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The second weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) of March is now active #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Week Charts (1833) #W1, continues as support for the Bulls, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bullish cross or Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 is on the cards as they are in touch. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 
  • TSI #M1 again comes back to test the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace line (indicator moved to above this retrace in early 2013).


Wrap:
Bears hope to get below 1833 - Bulls need the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH stand-off - Week 4 of March 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 21 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls and Bears stand-off near ATH #W2.

Senoku Span A & B gap flat and steady #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also flat and steady #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index on pause near ATH #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Senoku Span A & B gap - holding steady or increasing is good for Bulls for now #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears wish for a Senoku Span Cross #W3.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - EOW Channel Holds - Week 4 of March 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 21 Mar'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 21 Mar'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 21 Mar'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles formed a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1. Bulls make a new high but lose steam.
  • Last two candles on the EOW #W1 resemble 'High Wave' Candles.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index fails yet again to decisively  clear the EOW channel top #W1 as also the Monthly Pivot's R2 #D1.
  • The 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 was support for Bulls. 
Moving Averages:
  • The short term 5 EMA closing in on the 13 SMA #D1. 
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA poised to meet #D2, TRD at the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls manage to retain control of all screens - Bears once again send back the Index near the Weekly channel top #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active and has produced new Highs.  
  • The 'High Wave' Candles on the Week Chart (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #W1 imply indecision in the index. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The Nov'13 High (6343) #W1, is the current support. 
  • EOW Channel top remains the resistance for the Bulls #W1. Monthly Pivot's R2 also foiled the Bulls for the last couple of weeks #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD #D1, close to deflecting bullishly or crossing bearishly. 
      
Indicators:
  • Resistance at the 61.8% retrace as drawn on the TRD helps bears #M2. MACD sliding below its MA favors Bears #D2.


Wrap:
Bears seek support from the High wave candles #W1 for a life below 6343, Bulls look to the Piercing pattern #M1 for momentum, to clear the EOW Channel top #W1 decisively.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls pause High again - Week 4 of March 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 21 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls stay just below All Time Highs again (ATH)  #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also steadies #W2
Chikou Span dips towards Price line #W1.  


Wrap: Index stays paused near ATH
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span has to float round present height, to avoid a bearish cross with the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Contracting gap between Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross a couple of weeks away #W2.


Wrap: Bears like the Chikou Span below the Price line. Bulls pray for a deflection of the 
Tenkan sen and the Kijun Sen #W2.




Tuesday, March 18, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - EOW Channel Stop - Week 3 of March 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Mar'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Mar'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 14 Mar'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles formed a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1. Bulls make a new high but lost steam.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index failed to clear the EOW channel top #W1 as also the Monthly Pivot's R2 #D1.
  • The 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 was support for Bulls. 
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA stays bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS breaks above the Support line shown #W2, TRD at the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls manage to retain control of all screens - Bears send back the Index at Weekly channel top #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active and has produced new Highs.  
Support & Resistance:
  • The Nov'13 High (6343) #W1, is the current support. 
  • EOW Channel top remains the resistance for the Bulls #W1. Monthly Pivot's R2 also foiled the Bulls last week #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • Resistance at the 61.8% retrace as drawn on the TRD helps bears #M2.



Wrap:
Bears want life below 6343, Bulls look to get some momentum & clear the EOW Channel top #W1.