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Monday, March 31, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Top Struggle Continues - Week 1 of April 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Index continues its consolidation after the 'Opening White Marubozu' of last week on the EOW #W1, month candle goes red again #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls resisted near the current ATH, Index takes support at the Daily channel bottom #D1. 
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Day Chart, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA deflect bearishly #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders to the 50s #W2.
  • True Strength Indicator struggles to stay under the 74.6% Fibonacci retrace (between its High and Low) on the long term charts #M1


Wrap:
Bears defend current ATH - Bulls close the week inside the Day channel #D1 



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The second weekly 'Opening White Marubozu' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) of March is now active - it continued the consolidation process last week #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Week Charts (1836) #W1, continues as support for the Bulls for the 7th week now, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bullish cross or Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 is on the cards as they are in close proximity. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping below the over-bought zone, works for the Bears #D2. 
  • TSI staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace line, favors the Bulls #M2.


Wrap:
Bears hope to get below 1836 - Bulls need the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Stand-off near ATH - Week 1 of April 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues but now closer to the ATH #W2.

Senoku Span A & B gap narrows mildly #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also narrows mildly #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index on pause near ATH, advantage Bulls #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Gap between Senoku Span A & B, if holding steady or increasing - good for Bulls #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears look to visit the Kumo #W3.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - EOW Channel Folds - Week 1 of April 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 28 Mar'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • January and February Candles formed a  'Piercing Pattern' #M1. Bulls near March end with a break-out new high.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index finally and decisively clears the earlier EOW channel top as also the Monthly Pivot's R2 #D1. Index moves now in a steeper up-channel as drawn #W1. 
  • The deflection point of he 13 SMA & 5EMa on the EOD #D1 was support for Bulls. 
Moving Averages:
  • The short term 5 EMA bullishly deflects off 13 SMA early in the week, to setup the break-out bull move #D1. 
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA also deflect #D2, TRD nudging above the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.
  • Volume for this up-move (month) has been average #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls control all screens - Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Piercing Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is active and has produced a breakout new High.  
Support & Resistance:
  • The current support is the April'14 Wall i.e. 6642 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere)
  • New EOW Channel top is now resistance for the Bulls #W1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.  
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace boosts bulls #M2. MACD sliding below its MA favors Bears #D2.


Wrap:
Bears retreat to defend the new Weekly Channel top #W1Bulls look to stay above the April Wall (6642) and reach day channel top.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls soar after pause - Week 1 of April 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls break-out to new All Time Highs again #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen increases as in a broad deflection #W2
Chikou Span also makes a new High #W1.  


Wrap: Index soars after the pause, to a new ATH
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span dipping now would set up a easy meeting with the price-line #W1.
Early Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes for a bull party #W2. Proximity of these two lines however, keeps the Bulls on the edge.


Wrap: Bears like the Chikou Span below the Price line. Bulls focus on widening the gap between the
Tenkan sen and the Kijun Sen after the deflection #W2.