Learnings from the Past Week:
As analyzed on Friday last (click), we used technical analysis on Nifty and on Global screens to call the market's last move, in sync.
Also our Ichimoku Study (post below or click) shows us, that we discussed the EOW close of Nifty at the Kijun Sen, last week itself.
Is it a free fall from here, or are the Bulls just feinting before their big move?
Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 04 May, 2012.|
Our EOM update (click), said that 5199 is the level below which, the 5EMA / 13SMA Bullish cross disappears and we see a deflection - as one can see has happened above.
Nifty has closed the week below the 34 EMA.
The Bulls have lost advantage in this screen and need to move the index above the 34 EMA to regain same.
We take the section marked 'EOW' in the chart and zoom in with the chart below...
Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 04 May, 2012.|
Going into last week this screen had already gone Bear.
Price is approaching an old resistance line which is now a support line - see below last candle.
This screen currently, continues to remain with the Bears.
We zoom into the section of the chart marked 'EOD'.
Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 04 May, 2012.|
New RBG channel in place, after last week's price action.
Below all MAs that we track, and the MACD histogram is well into minus zone.
Looks like a Descending Triangle is in action - if so, time for a pull back to base - which is where the Wall (5189) is located.
Bulls get back their momentum, above our new red channel line, as marked.
Some Reads on Descending Triangles for those who want a recap:http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp#axzz1u6R1QlnG
Looking Forward into the next week:
We had stated earlier that the Bulls could feint a down move - the longer term bullish 'golden cross' and '34 EMA above 200 DMA' - are still in place.
Bears however rule the screens right now.
While a pullback to the Wall (5189) is a good thing - breaking and sustaining above the wall, with the above Bullish Crosses intact, is the next big thing to watch out for.