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Monday, June 16, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Top Stop - Week 3 of June 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 June'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 13 June'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Apr'14, onward - as on 13 June'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • As studied last week, Strong Resistance was faced at Weekly Channel Top. This stops the Bull up move and produces a Bearish Harami #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1, but stays above the 5 EMA on the Weekly #W1. 
  • Weekly Channel Top was resistance #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised for another deflection or Bearish Cross #D1 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stagnates in the 60s again #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of the Medium and Long Term Screens - Bears defend the EOW channel top and dominate the Short Term Screen #W1.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The Medium Term Bearish Harami (Study link herehere or elsewhereis active  #W1. 
  • Following the Bearish Harami, Bears look to enforce a Three Inside Down  (Study link herehere or elsewhere#W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1921 is support for the week, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA could cross Bearishly below Index reading of 1928 (for Monday) - giving the Bears the short term screen #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls want life above the 5 EMA on the Day charts - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts after triggering a 3 inside down #W1. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bear Try - Week 3 of June 2015.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 13 June'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls after break out of the earlier range keep well above Tenkan Sen #W2.

Bears attempt to reach Tenkan Sen #W2.
Ichimoku signal lines move up steady #W2, #W3.


Wrap: Bears pull back some Bull gains from previous week's range break-out #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to head back to the ATH #W2, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Mid Line Crisis - Week 3 of June 2014.



Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action


Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action 


Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - line chart of daily closing Prices




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls get more gains from the 'Medium Term', Three Outside up #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 5 EMA on the EOD #D1, cracked by bears on the last session of the week.  
  • Confluence of Mid-line (blue) of the Day Channel and R1 of the Monthly Pivot was the critical resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • On EOD, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay Bullishy Deflected #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS Pull Back (study) falters at the resistance (earlier support) line, but is still in the overbought zone #W2. 
  • TRD nears the 76.4 % Fibonacci retrace #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all screens and make new ATH - Bears force a lower weekly close #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bulls look to the 'Medium Term', Three Outside up (Study links herehere or elsewhere) for some more gains.
Support & Resistance:
  • Support that bears want to reach & crack is now the 5 EMA on the EOW (7360) #W1.
  • The R1 of the Month Pivot 7650 #D1 remains the resistance that Bulls want to live above. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator keeping below the 76.4% retrace is good for the Bears #M2.
  • STS getting above resistance (earlier support) line, helps Bull Cause #W2.


Wrap:
Bears look to reach and crack 7360Bulls seek to get and stay above the 5 EMA on the EOD #W1.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds - Week 3 of June 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 13 June'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support just above Tenkan Sen for the 17th straight week, after falling from another new ATH #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap steady #W2


Wrap: Bulls make a new breakout ATH - fall supported near Tenkan Sen 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Bear hope is that the Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Bulls want to keep the price line clear of the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs #W2. 


Wrap: Bears hope is to get the index below the 
Tenkan sen, Bull focus is to get back to ATHs #W2.