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Sunday, January 6, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week:Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Bulls Break out...




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 04 Jan '13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 04 Jan '13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 04 Jan '13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

After the Bear Slide of the week before last - one suggested watching the MVWAP 34 #D1, on the Day Chart - retake of this MA by the Bulls early in the week was the first sign of a fightback.
The Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1, also triggered the Bullish breakout.
EOW channel has been reoriented #W1 post the up move.  
On the long term charts - one sees a close above 5 EMA  #M1 and also see the %K & %D meeting for a cross #M2.
RSI stayed above the MA #W2 another sign we observed last week.


Last week saw the Bulls and Bears reverse dominance on the medium term and short term - Bulls with a huge green candle take top slot.





Looking forward into the next Week:

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the focus areas on the long, medium and short term charts that we study this week.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action and get up close in #D1.

Channel top resistance #D1 is something the Bears would use, to pause the Bull run.
Once again the MVWAP 34 on the EOD, #D1 is something to watch.
STS position #2, in the oversold zone, indicate long term strength of Bulls - One watches the action of the %K and %D for clues to the Bull strength.



Bulls take over all the three screens and the Bears are left hoping for a fall from the short term Channel's 'red top line' #D1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Bulls make the charge !




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 04 Jan '13 



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 04 Jan '13 



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 04 Jan '13 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

As suggested last week - staying above our numbers 5870/80 the Bulls charged up (100 odd points).
The Three Outside up #1 gives the Bull, some rewards.
MACD and Signal lines cross Bullishly #5.
The EOD Channel's green bottom was used to stage the Bull charge, index is now near the channel's middle point #5.
The Short Fuse indicator starts Jan'13 with an uptick #2.


Staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - Bulls are set to make a new all time high.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel top on the EOW is near #3.
The 5 EMA 13 SMA re-cross on the EOD is a signal to watch #5.
Index staying above the 5 EMA on the EOW is critical for Bulls in the medium term #3.
Action of the STS is also worth a watch #3.
The performance of the 'Three Outside Up' #1 is also worth a study.

With all screens screaming green, Bears need help - channel tops on the EOD and EOW may help.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Advantage Bulls




                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)

New:
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 04 Jan '13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls did hold the Critical Tenkan Sen last Week #2.
We also have a range break to above the Kijun Sen #2.
The Chikou Span neatly deflects away from the Price #1.
The Senkou Spans slightly diverge away from each other #3.
The Oscillator ticks up #4.


The Bulls come back from the critical Tenkan Sen with a bounce, taking the index close to the Highs of last year.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senkou Span Cross #3 - if it happens from this position - is still bad news for the Bulls.
Bulls now would look at a Bullish Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross #2.
Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Holding above the Kijun Sen, Bulls should look at taking out last year's high.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Ahead and Some, Bull




                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  

Last:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 04 Jan '13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls after a few weeks of ranging, trend up, above the Tenkan Sen #1.
Oscillator ticks even #2. 



Bulls break the range of a few years and take the Sensex higher.  





Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Bears get a life once the Tenkan Sen #1 is taken out on the way down.



Distant possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..