Monday, January 25, 2016

US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pin bar - Week 4 of January 2016.













Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous `post)


Patterns:.
  • More rewards from the 'Three inside down' pattern on the Weekly charts for the Bears as new lows are made #W1.
  • Bulls lock in above the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low' with a green pin bar #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index was resisted by the 13 SMA on the Day Screen #D1. Support was above the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the 2008 (blue) low' #M1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA on all Screens stay crossed bearishly below the 13 SMA on all screens. 
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, in the 30s  #W2.  


    Wrap:
    Bulls close the week above the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low' with a green pin bar #W1.
    Bears prove a point, making a lower high (earlier) and a lower low (now) #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Three inside down' pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
    • 'Pin Bar candle' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 50 SMA on the Monthly chart is the next major support #M1. The 5 EMA on the Week Charts (1944) is  likely resistance #D1,
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA on the Monthly Screen will cross bullishly above the 13 SMA, only if the index closes above 2070 this month #M1.
    Indicators:
    • STS stays in the oversold #D2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls after kick off upwards, from support at the 
    '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low', seek more green with some help from the 'pin bar' #W1.
    Bears look to enforce a lower low with the momentum from the 'Three inside down' pattern.



    India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Morning Star ? - Week 4 of January 2016.














    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    Patterns:
    • Inverted Hammer of the previous week, is followed by a long legged doji, which also gaps down #W1.
    • Bears again use the 'Three White Soldiers pattern to good effect #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index closed at S2 of the Month pivot. Resistance was at the daily 5 EMA #D1. Index came back from below the support at 7367, the '61.8% retrace of the 2010 low to the ATH' #W1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay deflected bearishly on all three Charts..
    Indicators:
    • On the week charts the STS #W1, is deep in the over sold zone.

    Wrap:

    Bulls finally manage to rise above the daily 5 EMA #D1.
    Earlier the Bears touched 7367, with an active 'Three White Soldiers' pattern in play #/W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Three White Soilders' pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
    • The Last candle on the week chart is a Long Legged Doji (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) whose body shows a clear gap down #W1. 
    • Possibility of a Morning Star Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) forming exists #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index has immediate resistance at 7494 the 76.4% retrace of the 2008 low to the ATH #M1 and then at the Weekly Channel bottom #W1.
    • Support is S2 of the Month pivot and  later at the Daily Channel bottom #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    Indicators:
    • The MACD is below the zero line #D2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls pray for a pullback to Week Channel Bottom #W1.
    Bears eye life around the day channel bottom #D1.



    Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Pause and Bounce - Week 4 of January 2016.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)

    Bulls enforce a pause in the fall with a strong green candle #W2.

    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.

    Wrap: 

    Index still below the Tenkan Sen, Bulls make a strong pause and bounce.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Chikou Span is a long way from the price line  #W2.

    Senkou Span A & B  crossing or deflecting helps the Bull or Bear Causes respectively #W3.
    Some more green, to let the Tenkan Sen catch up, is the next event the Bulls long for #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and make some lower lows #W2.
    Folow up to this bounce with a bullish cross of the Tenkan Sen #W2, is the next Bull hope.




    Tuesday, January 19, 2016

    US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channels and Fibonacci - Week 3 of January 2016.











    Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous `post)


    Patterns:.
    • 'Three inside down' pattern on the Weekly charts, works for the Bears #W1.
    • Index in and around Channel Bottoms on the Week and Day Screens #W1 and #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index was resisted by the 5 EMA on the Day Screen #D1. Support was at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 2011 low' #W1.
    Moving Averages:  
      • The 5 EMA on the Month Screen stays deflected bearishly below the 13 SMA #M1. 
      Indicators:
      • RSI 13, in the 30s  #W2.  


      Wrap:
      Bulls hold the fall near the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low' #W1.
      Bears keep the index below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart all week #D1.




      Looking forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • 'Three inside down' pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
      • Channel bottoms and the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low' #W1 are 'hope stops' for the Bulls.
      Support & Resistance: 
      • 50 SMA on the Monthly chart is the next major support #M1. The 5 EMA on the Week Charts (1963) is  likely resistance #D1,
      Moving Averages:
      • The 5 EMA on the Monthly Screen will cross bullishly above the 13 SMA, only if the index closes above 2070 this month #M1.
      Indicators:
      • STS stays in the oversold #D2.


      Wrap:

      Bulls hope to kick off upwards, from the 
      '23.6% Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the March 201low' #W1.
      Bears look to keep moving down and squeeze some more rewards from the 'Three inside down' pattern.


      Monday, January 18, 2016

      India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Bottom action - Week 3 of January 2016.











      Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

      Patterns:
      • Bears start the week and stay, below the Weekly Channel bottom, making an inverted Hammer #W1.
      • Bears use the 'Three White Soilders' pattern to good effect #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index closed below the 76.4% retrace of the 2008 low to the ATH #M1, on the last day of the week, support was S2 of the Month pivot. Resistance was at the daily 5 EMA #D1.
      Moving Averages: 
      • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay deflected bearishly on the Week Chart #W1.
      Indicators:
      • On the week charts the STS #W1, is in the over sold zone.

      Wrap:

      Bulls fail to rise above the daily 5 EMA #D1.
      Bears crash the index trough the Weekly Channel Bottom #W1, with an active 'Three White Soilders' pattern in play #/W1.





      Looking Forward into this Week:

      Patterns:
      • 'Three White Soilders' pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
      • The Last candle on the week chart is an Inverted Hammer (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) whose body shows a clear gap down #W1,
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index has immediate resistance at 7494 the 76.4% retrace of the 2008 low to the ATH #M1 and then at the Weekly Channel bottom #W1.
      • Support is S2 of the Month pivot and  later at the Daily Channel bottom #D1.
      Moving Averages: 
      Indicators:
      • The MACD is below the zero line #D2.


      Wrap :
      Bulls pray for a pullback to Week Channel Bottom #W1.
      Bears hope to break below the day channel bottom #D1.


      Brent Crude Oil - Ichimoku Study - Pause? - Week 3 of January 2016.






      Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


      Learning from the Earlier Study: 
      (click here for the previous post)

      Bulls fold again with another long red candle, bears make a lower low #W2.

      Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, increases #W3.
      Gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, steady #W2.

      Wrap: 

      Index dives again below the Tenkan Sen and makes aother lower low.



      Looking Forward into this Week:


      Chikou Span is a long way from the price line  #W2.

      Senkou Span A & B  crossing or deflecting helps the Bull or Bear Causes respectively #W3.
      A pause to let the Tenkan Sen catch up is the next event favoring the Bulls #W2.


      Wrap:

      Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen, and make some lower lows #W2.
      An oversold bounce or a bullish cross of the Tenkan Sen #W2, is the next Bull hope.

      Monday, January 11, 2016

      US - S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside down - Week 2 of January 2016.










      Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous `post)


      Patterns:.
      • 'Three inside down' pattern forms on the Weekly charts #W1.
      Support & Resistance:
      • Index was resisted by the MVWAP34 on the Medium Term Screen #W1. Support was at the MVWAP34 on the Long Term Screen #M1.
      Moving Averages:  
        • The 5 EMA on the Month Screen deflects bearishly below the 13 SMA #M1. 
        Indicators:
        • RSI 13, in the 40s  #W2.  


        Wrap:
        Bears after holding the index to a lower high, crack through the previous Day Channel Bottom #D1.
        Bulls keep index just above the long term MVWAP34 #M1.




        Looking forward into this Week:

        Patterns:
        • 'Three inside down' pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active on the Medium Term Chart #W1.
        Support & Resistance: 
        • Day Channel bottom (pink) #D1 is likely support.  Previous high (2080) is resistance #D1,
        Moving Averages:
        • The 5 EMA on the Monthly Screen will cross bullishly above the 13 SMA, if the index closes above 2070 this month #M1.
        Indicators:
        • STS dives to the oversold #D2.


        Wrap:

        Bulls hope the support at the MVWAP34 #M1, shows them some green.

        Bears push to get some rewards of the 'Three inside down' pattern.