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Monday, June 29, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear High - Week 1 of July 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index extends its bounce off the bottom of the Day Channel #D1, this month's candle now resembles a Doji or a spinning top #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index found resistance well before the previous high - and support before the previous low #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • With a close at 2012, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the medium term #W1, again touch and go as in a bullish deflection.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the middle of the range for some time now #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls stop short of the previous low and the long term 5 EMA #M1. 
    Bears stop the index well short of the ATH, and retake the short term screen #M1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bulls keep the index above the Long term 5 EMA, for the 4th month running. The previous two month candles #M1, resemble spinning tops as does the June candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    Support & Resistance: 
    • The Day Channel Bottom #D1, is the support that Bears want to get below. 
    • Bulls seek to get above 2114 #W1 and clear the ATH #M1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Bulls if they close this Week above 2114, will retain the Bullish deflection of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the Weekly Charts  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS 34 returns at the oversold mark #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls, keeping above the long term 5 EMA, look to make a new ATH #M1
    Bears want a weekly close below 2114, and a break below the Day Channel #D1.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Slip - Week 1 of July 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index bounces off from support at the Kijun Sen but gets sent back at the Tenkan Sen once more #W1.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B, gap increases #W3.
    Chikou Span slips below the Price line #W1.

    Wrap: Index takes support at the Kijun Sen, Chikou span slips below the Price line #W1.



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Cross of Tenkan Sen, to below the Kijun Sen, is next on Bear wishlist #W2.
    Chikou Span slips below the Price line, however, Bears would have to make a steep dive now to keep it that way (3 red candles after the Slip) #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Kijun Sen and aim for the All Time High, Bears want to work at keeping the Bearish Cross of the Chikou Span and the Price line #W2. 




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pinned? - Week 1 of July 2015.












     
    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • Bullish Harami on the long term chart. produces a red Pin Bar in June with 2 days to go #M1.
    • The weekly charts sees a Opening White Marubozu #W1.
    • Bulls hold off a Bearish H&S on the Day Charts #D1a and #D1b.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears defend the mid-line of the Day Channel #D1a.
    • Bulls close above the 50 and 200 SMAs #D1a last week.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Weekly charts, poised for a Bullish cross or Bearish Deflection at 8494 #W1.
    • Death Cross on the Day Charts (50 & 200 SMA) yet to reward the Bears, these MAs continue to diverge #D1a.
    Indicators:
    • On the Medium Term, STS touches the Oversold line and takes support #W2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls bouncing from support at the Bottom of the Day Channel, clear the June Wall #D1.
    Bears defend the Mid-line of the Day Channel #D1a.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • 'Death Cross' is active on the Day Charts, as the 50 SMA dives under the 200 SMA (study links herehere or elsewhere) #D1.
    • A Bullish Harami (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart. 
    • Effects of a possible Pin Bar candle in June #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) and the Opening White Marubozu #W1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) along with the H&S on the Day Charts #D1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to impact this week's action.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls have support  at the Day Channel's bottom line #D1, and at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' #W1.
    • Resistance continues at the Day Channel's blue middle line #D1 and at 8494 #W1.
    • Wall for July 2015 is 8398. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross is active as long as the 50 SMA stays below the 200 SMA #D1 - gap between these MAs, is currently increasing.
    Indicators:
    • Bulls hope that the TRD would settle above the 50% mark this month #M2.


    Wrap :
    Bulls look to close above the Wall (8398) and the Day Channel's mid-line #D1.
    Bears plan to use the Death Cross's effect, to get the index below 8040, defending 8494 #W1. 

    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span action - Week 1 of July 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)


    Bull wish list  filled as Chikou Span clears the Price line and Price line clears the Tenkan Sen and Kumo last week #W1&W2.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B  narrows further #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen widens #W2.


    Wrap: 

    Index pops out of the Kumo #W2, Chikou Span slips above the Price line #W1. 



    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bear wish list for the week is to get the Chikou Span back below the Price line and the Price line inside the Kumo #W1&W2.
    Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A & B, makes a bullish deflection or bearish cross, imminent #W3.
    Bull hope rests on staying above the rather thick Kumo (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls wish to stay above the Kumo, keep the Chikou Span above the Price line and manage a deflection of the Senkou Span A & B  #W1. 
    Bears look at the congestion around the Chikou span for an early reversal and for Index to slide back into the Kumo #W2.