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Monday, April 21, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Marubozu Continuation - Week 4 of April 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 17 Mar'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 17 Mar'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls back on top, with the continuation pattern studied last week 'Closing  Black Marubozu' on the EOW #W1 - continuing the consolidation
  • Opening White Marubozu is the last weekly candle formed #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index moves back above the weekly 13 SMA #W1 but stops shy of making a  short term Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1. 
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA close to deflecting or crossing in the Medium Term #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, continues to meander inthe 50s #W2.
  • TSI seen hanging around its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.


Wrap:
Index closes the week back above the crucial 13 SMA on the Weekly charts - Bears lose control of the short term charts.


Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The weekly 'Shooting Star' (Study link herehere or elsewherecandle is active  #W1. 
  • The Continuation Pattern i.e Opening White Marubozu is also active (Study link herehere or elsewhere)
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1819.
  • Keeping above 1862 on Monday would produce a Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1.  
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping back into the over-sold zone, works for the Bears #D2. 


Wrap:
Bears look to get below 1862 - Bulls need to stay above the weekly 13 SMA 1842 #W1 to remain on top.


The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bears Defend Top - Week 4 of April 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 17 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues around the ATH #W2.

Tenkan Sen close to Price Line #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index on pause near ATH - broad ranging continues all 2014  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen staying apart #W2, Bears look to get and stay below the Tenkan Sen #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls sneak a 3 outside up - Week 4 of April 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 Mar'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 17 Mar'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Engulfing Pattern of previous week becomes a Three outside up #W1 by a wafer thin margin
  • Evening star possibility on the Monthly charts remain #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 5 EMA on the medium term charts #W1 was support for Bulls once again. 
Moving Averages:
  • Index sees the short term 5 EMA and 13 SMA meeting for a deflection or cross #D1. 
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA cross bearishly #D2, 
  • TRD hanging around the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls manage to retain control of all screens - Bears eye a evening star #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish Three outside up ( Study link herehere or elsewhere) active but needs a watch due to the meager margin it grew out of #W1.
  • Bears see a possibility of an Evening Star formation #M1 (Study link herehere or elsewhere)  
Support & Resistance:
  • The current support, the April'14 Wall i.e. 6642 - was tested, last couple of weeks.
  • EOD Channel top is now resistance for the Bulls #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
  • 5 EMA staying above the 13 SMA  (+6724 for Monday)  important for Bulls #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace boosts bulls #M2.
  • MACD staying below its MA favors Bears #D2.


Wrap:
Bears hope for a Evening Star #M1Bulls seek to keep the weekly Three outside up alive #W1.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Deflection Gains - Week 4 of April 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 17 Mar'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take a break near All Time Highs #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection clearly visible #W2



Wrap: Deflection of the 
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen: gain for Bulls #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will avoid the price-line, for a few months #W1.
Current deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, makes for a bull party #W2. 



Wrap: Bears like a cross of the 
Tenkan sen and the Kijun Sen - Bulls see new highs beyond the deflection #W2.