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Sunday, March 17, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - All Time High Next ?



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 15 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 15 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 15 March'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Price stays above the Month Channel Top - #M1, #W1 & #D1 - Bulls keep rolling on..
Triple top on Long Term Charts - a matter of solace for Bears.
Bulls keep index above the 5 EMA on all three screens.
RSI #W2, and its MA crossed bullishly & the action at the STS #M2 emphasize the Bull's Long Term Strength.
Bulls keep the three screens this week too. 



Bulls control all three screens - Bears have the Triple Top to hope for.



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues as support for the Bulls.
Price heading for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - line marked #M1.
Getting the price below the Month Channel Top (1543 for this month) gives the Bears an edge.
Price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the point where the bears see strength.
Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time.
Bulls dominate all three screens now..



Month Channel's red Top Line is now support and the 'All Time High Line' shows possible resistance #M1 or #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - Support turns Resistance...


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 15 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 15 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 15 March'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw '5919' the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week.
Price stayed above this level on Monday last, Tuesday saw a close at 5914 - so 5919 had changed from Support to Resistance, as we have studied earlier and can see here, here or elsewhere.
For the rest of the week, Price repeatedly tried to close the day above the 5919 resistance and failed.
Thus Bears alert on Tuesday last, saw some honey.
Day channel #5, sees the Price reflecting from the channel top.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows a possible Bull comeback #4.



Resisted by the 50 SMA on the EOD #5, price cracks below last week's support #1.






Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel Middle (blue) and 34 EMA on the EOW, support Bulls #3.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above 5919, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
On the day charts the 5 EMA moving below the 13 SMA, would trigger a fall next week #5.
Support line on the STS #4, to be watched. 


The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace (5919) of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, reverts to being the resistance and the 61.8% mark the support.






The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - High !



                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 15 March'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Bulls lunge up some more after the same move last week #2..
The Chikou Span #1, increases distance to the price line.
The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price continues.


Advantage continues with the Bulls.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.
Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.
Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.


Bears now look for a reversal,  getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new highs..





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - Bears Force Retreat



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.




Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

New:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Bearish Signal (Te)




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 15 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls use support at the Kijun Sen to prevent a crash #2.
Bears bring index below the Tenkan Sen again #2.
Oscillator ticks down #3.
Chikou Span again heads towards the Price line #1.


Bulls and Bears even on the medium term Screen.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kijun Sen - Bulls have some relief #2.
Bears see strength, below the Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span meeting price line is good for Bears #1.


A Bearish / Bullish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, is the next action point to watch.