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Monday, May 25, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pull-back Touch - Week 4 of May 2015.












 

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

 

Patterns:
  • Index, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - bounces off the week channel's blue mid-line #W1 and climbs above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1 
  • Bulls almost complete the Pull-back to the Day Channel's green bottom-line #D1..
  • The twin 'High Wave' candles on the week chart, produces a massive green candle #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index takes support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  after clearing the weekly 50 SMA #W1.
  • Resistance was at the Weekly 13 SMA #W1, and the daily 50 SMA #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, are close enough for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD crosses its MA and its Histogram stays above the zero line #D2.


Wrap:
Bulls after taking support the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart #W1, retrace 38.2% of the move from the 'ATH to the May 2015 bottom' #D1.
Bears defend the daily 50 SMA #D1 and halt the pull-back near the green bottom line of the Day Channel #D1..





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The Pull-Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is almost done - Bears look to take over #D1. 
  • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
  • The Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the May 2015 bottom and its retrace possibilities are worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls face resistance at the Day Chart's 50 SMA #D1 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (8686) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  
  • Support is available, at the Week Channel's blue mid-line #W1 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
Indicators:
  • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark, this month #M2.


Wrap :
Bulls look to stay above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to get the momentum back with a post pull-back fall, to below the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) #W1.