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Monday, August 4, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave - Week 1 of August 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 Aug'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 01 Aug'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 01 Aug'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Doji of previous week on the EOW chart, works for the Bears #W1.
  • Last candle on the EOD chart is a High Wave #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Breaking the earlier EOD channel bottom (see last week's post), Index dives below the weekly 13 SMA #W1, to halt just above the 5 EMA (1911) on the Monthly Screen #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are poised to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 slips below the over bought #W2.
  • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls lose control of the short term screen - Bears force index back down, to near the monthly 5 EMA #W1.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:

  • High Wave on the Short Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Current EOD channel Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports while the 13 SMA (1945) #W1 is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.
Moving Averages:
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will cross bearishly, if Index closes below 1921, this week #W1
Indicators:
  • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, by closing this week above 1921 - Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (EOM) after May 2012 #M1. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - YoYo & Fall - Week 1 of August 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 01 Aug'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

After an 8 week YoYo of green and red candles, Index dives below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases #W2.
Gap between  Senoku Span A-B also moves down #W3.


Wrap: Bears crash Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen next #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Kijun Sen #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears below the wall - Week 1 of August 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 01 Aug'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Last week's Bullish Three Inside Up, formed by a slender 10 point margin fails to deliver #W1.
  • July Month candle is a High Wave #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears defend the Day Channel Top #D1 and slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1. Bulls keep it above the 50 SMA #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to cross bearishly #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence with Price for the 3rd consecutive wave gives Bears some honey, MACD moves below its MA #D2. 
  • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:
Bulls lose control of the short term screen after index keeps below the August Wall 7721 (Study), while Bears further keep it below the August Monthly Pivot 7667 #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • July monthly candle is a High Wave  (Study links herehere or elsewhere), and its now active #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support near the 13 SMA on the EOW (7517) #W1, while Index  faces resistance at the Month Pivot 7667 #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bearishly if index closes below 7767 in the next trading session #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence to Price works for Bears, while the MACD staying above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.
  • STS keeping in the overbought is good for the Bulls #W1.


Wrap:
Bulls look to defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get above the 5 EMA on the EOW 7628 #W1Bears look to keep below the August Pivot 7667 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Back - Week 1 of August 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 01 Aug'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears defend recent Highs, and Index dives below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steadies #W2


Wrap: Bears send index below Tenkan Sen 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bulls want to defend the recent Lows and get the index above the Tenkan Sen again #W2. 


Wrap: Bears look to 
keep the index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to get above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.