Monday, December 30, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside up, 3 green months - Week 1 of January 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 27 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts keeps November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index moves up with good momentum above th 5 EMA on the EOD all of last week #D1. 
  • EOW channel top resistance (orange line) helps Bears hold up the rally #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The Month candle stayed above the 5 EMA showing the long term strength of the Bulls #M1.
  • Bulls with the new ATH, end above all the MAs we track across all screens, for the second week running.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator slides below the overbought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls keep well above the 5 EMA on the EOD to get another new ATH - Bears hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls.
  • 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
  • Bulls dominate all three screens.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1808) to get a life #W1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
  • MACD and its MA meet up for a cross or deflection #D1.


Wrap:
Bears see life below 1808 and trust the EOW channel top #W1 continues to hold the Bulls - Bulls expect to make new highs and keep December's candle green #M1.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH again - Week 1 of January 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 27 Dec'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get another new ATH #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steadies #W2.


Wrap: Bulls rise from Tenkan Sen to another ATH, last week #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span thrusts away from Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and make new ATHs while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Advantage Bulls - Week 1 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls keep the December candle Green in line with the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1.
  • November's 'Hanging man influence' #M1 - again on hold last week.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls stay clear of the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 and inch towards the ATH.
  • Bull momentum high, as index kept above 5 EMA on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls get the advantage as the short term 5 EMA moves above the 13 SMA #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 


Wrap:
Bulls dominate the short term screen - Bears fail at the Daily 5 EMA #D1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle of November #M1, continues to influence the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Closing December above November's Open (6290) sets up a mild Bullish Engulfing Pattern - making this number, the one, Bulls would want to hold #M1.
 Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • The Nifty Wall for the current series is 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere).


Wrap:

Bulls seek to close December above 6290 and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bears hope to slip below the Wall and avoid being Engulfed  #M1. 




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls edge towards ATH - Week 1 of January 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)


Bulls stay clear of the Tenkan Sen and inch up towards the ATH #W2.
Senkou Span gap steadies #W3.


Wrap: Bears on the back foot as the Bulls stay clear above the Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to keep above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more. 



Monday, December 23, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside up green - Week 4 of December 2013.



S&P 500: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action 



S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action 



S&P 500: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - each candle is 1 day's price action




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - December candle turns green after honors are wrested back by Bulls with a new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index takes off from support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 and sail above our mark of 1785 to make a new ATH. 
  • EOW channel top was nearest resistance #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • With the Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA - Bulls get their direction last week.
  • Bulls with the new ATH, end above all the MAs we track across all screens.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, manages to stay in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls take off from support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 to get a new ATH - Bears hold the EOW channel top..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
  • Bulls dominate all three screens.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1797) to get a life #W1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bears see life below 1797 and trust the EOW channel top #W1 holds the Bulls - Bulls expect to make new highs and keep December's candle green #M1.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Hanging with the Stars - Week 4 of December 2013.




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 Dec'13




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get a new ATH after the 'shooting star' week hangs, and the consequent red candles #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen opens wide #W2.


Wrap: Bulls rise from Tenkan Sen to another ATH #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span thrusts away from Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Support at 13 again - Week 4 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 20 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 20 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 20 Dec'13





Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls make the December candle Green in line with the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1.
  • November's 'Hanging man influence' #M1 - on hold last week.
  • Last three candles on the EOW #W1, show a failed 'Three Outside Down'.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls again find  support around the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls find support at the confluence of the 34 EMA and 50 SMA on the EOD #D1.
  • Bulls yet to dominate the Short Term Screen as the 5 EMA stayed below the 13 SMA, all last week on the Day Chart #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, which was a strong support for Bulls as expected. 


Wrap:
Bulls hold on to the short term screen - Bears again fail at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle of November, continues to influence the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6200), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the recent ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to keep clear above the 13 SMA (EOW) and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bear hope rests on the  Hanging man candle of November #M1. 



 

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls on Top - Week 4 of December 2013.




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)


Bulls on top again as they retake the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens in the making of a thicker Kumo  #W3.



Wrap: Bears on the back foot as the Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to keep above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more. 




Monday, December 16, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Cash in - Week 3 of December 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 13 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 13 Dec'13


Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - December honors are with Bears.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index fell out of Day Channel, Pulled back from Support to last week's Channel Bottom, and then crashed below the MVWAP 34 #D1. 
  • MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1 was the support Bears cracked last week to take the Short Term screen.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep December candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
  • EOD 5 EMA ends below the 13 SMA despite Bull attempts intra-week #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, manages to stay in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bears Cash in after spoiling the Bull Party - Bulls keep nose above 13 SMA on the EOW #W1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Bulls need to get above the 5 EMA on the EOW (1785) to gain some traction #W1.
  • If a Bullish re-cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, happens this week, along with above would give Bulls direction going forward. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the oversold, works for the Bears #D1


Wrap:
Bulls see life above 1785 and trust the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, helps make December green - Bears look to take the Index below the 13 SMA #W1.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of December 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 13 Dec'13


Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls have another red week after the 'shooting star' week hangs #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen opens wide #W2.


Wrap: Bulls dive from ATH to Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span dives towards Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to regain momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks this week #W2.