Sunday, March 31, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Knocking at the All Time High



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 28 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 28 March'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bulls pull off a Green Candle to deny the Bears a 'Three Inside Down' #W1
March candle closes above the (earlier) Month Channel - new Month channel shown now... #M1, #W1& #D1.
Bulls come close to the all time High last week - 1576 - Bears defend this next resistance #M1.
Earlier in the week - 5 EMA and 13 SMA that we were watching - choose to deflect and give the Bulls some green #D1.
Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes high.
Bulls keep index above the 5 EMA on all three screens.
RSI #W2, and its MA re-crossed bullishly.



Bulls control all three screens and the Bears defend the 'All Time High' Line.



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1, is the support for the Bulls.
Bulls aim for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - resistance #W1 or #M1.
Price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the point where the bears see strength.
Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time
5 EMA and 13 SMA on day charts #D1, crossing near the 'All Time High' would be good for Bears.
Divergence on the MACD Histogram -  #D2 - yet to produce results for Bears.



With the price hovering close to the 'All Time High', focus is on that resistance and the Bull's ability to crack it.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Three Outside Down !



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 March'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 March'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 28 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week - we also saw the Feb'13 close of 5693 as the resistance.
Price initially went below support and then tried to take out the resistance 5693 on the last day of the week & month  - failing with a day high of 5692 - #1, #5.
Bears therefore manage the Three Outside Down which we studied in last week's post.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows the Bull failure #4.
200 DMA on the EOD #5 - and the bottom channel line (green) provide support last week.



Price falls short of the Feb'13 month close of 5693 - March'13 closes at 5683 - 'Three Outside Down' Triggered #1.






Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above 5720, the 34 EMA on the Week Charts #3 - is important for Bulls to shoot for some weekly green - despite the Bearish pattern studied above.
Cross or deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched #5.
Bullish divergence seen on the MACD #6 - helps a pull back.
Getting above the 5 EMA on the EOM #1 and EOW #3 also - gives the Bulls some more power.
Crashing below the 200 SMA #5, gives the Bears the honey.


The Three Outside Down's effect in the long term and a bounce in the short term seem to be happening together ..





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 March to 28 March, 2013 - Higher !



                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 March'13






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Bulls resume the climb up, after last week's pause  #2..
The Chikou Span #1, increases its distance to the price line.
The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price continues.


Advantage continues with the Bulls.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.
Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.
Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.


Bears continue to wait for a reversal and getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls seek new highs..






BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Bull Prayer Answered..



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.




Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

New:
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls have a better week and an answer to their prayers #1 & #2.
Oscillator continues to tick down #3.
Chikou Span deflects after the hair thin Bearish Cross and now can even be called a Bullish Deflection #1.



A Bullish Chikou Span Cross / Deflection, at this stage, if it can be held by the Bulls, marks a reversal...






Looking Forward into the next Week:

Getting above the Kijun Sen next Bull task #2.
Chikou Span staying above price line is must for Bulls #1.
A Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #2, is on unless Bulls take off from here and reach Feb'2013 levels...



Keeping above the Chikou Span, if Bulls reach Feb'2013 levels in the coming week - they would avoid a Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross.






Sunday, March 24, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 March to 22 March, 2013 - Month Channel Top holds..



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 22 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 22 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 22 March'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Price takes support on the Month Channel Top - #M1, #W1 & #D1 - Bears fail to bring it below this support.
Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes high.
Bulls keep index above the 5 EMA on all three screens.
RSI #W2, and its MA re-crossed bearishly.
The action at the STS #M2 emphasize the Bull's Long Term Strength.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day screen #D1 meet for deflection or cross next week.
Bulls just about retain control of the three screens this week. 



Bulls control all three screens and foil the Bear attack the Month channel top.



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Bearish Harami forms on the Week Charts #W1 - next candle decides 'Three inside down'.
Three Inside Down Candle Pattern can be revised here, here or anywhere else.
Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues as support for the Bulls.
Bulls aim for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - line marked #M1.
Price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the point where the bears see strength.
Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time
5 EMA and 13 SMA on day charts touch - poised for deflection or cross #D1.



Action on the MAs #D1 and the follow up candle on the Week Screen #W1, to determine direction in the coming week.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 March to 22 March, 2013 - Three Outside Down ?



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 March'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 March'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 22 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week.
Price came down to this level and closed exactly at this line last Friday #1, #5a & #5b.
Month Chart shows the last three candles showing a potential 'Three Outside Down.' #1
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows a possible Bull comeback #4.
The 5 EMA moving below the 13 SMA, on the Day Charts, triggered the fall as studied last week #5.



Price lands exactly on the  61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above 5919, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
Support line on the STS #4, to be watched. 
The close of this month's candle (this last week) would decide it we have a 'Three Outside Down' on the Long Term Charts #1.
Good enough reason to read it up here, here or elsewhere !




The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (5650) of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, remains support - failure by Bulls to take index above last Month's close (5693) makes it a 'Three Outside Down' - so our resistance is 5693.




Saturday, March 23, 2013

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 March to 22 March, 2013 - High Pause !



                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 22 March'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Bulls pause after the lunge up of last week #2..
The Chikou Span #1, holds distance to the price line.
The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price continues.


Advantage continues with the Bulls.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.
Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.
Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.


Bears now look for a reversal,  getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new highs..





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 March to 22 March, 2013 - Bears force the pace..




                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.




Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Bearish Signal (Te)

New:
The Chikou Span Cross:  Weak Bearish Signal (Cc)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 22 March'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears bring index below the Kijun Sen #2.
Oscillator ticks down #3.
Chikou Span touches the Price line and makes a hair thin Bearish Cross #1.


A Bearish Chikou Span Cross as well as a Bearish Kijun Sen Cross, gives the bears the medium term screen..





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Getting above the Kijun Sen a must for Bulls next week #2.
Chikou Span staying below price line is good for Bears #1.
A Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #2, would break the Bull's back.


A deflection of the Chikou Span #1, from the price line would be the Bull prayer for the next week..






Sunday, March 17, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - All Time High Next ?



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 15 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 15 March'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 15 March'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Price stays above the Month Channel Top - #M1, #W1 & #D1 - Bulls keep rolling on..
Triple top on Long Term Charts - a matter of solace for Bears.
Bulls keep index above the 5 EMA on all three screens.
RSI #W2, and its MA crossed bullishly & the action at the STS #M2 emphasize the Bull's Long Term Strength.
Bulls keep the three screens this week too. 



Bulls control all three screens - Bears have the Triple Top to hope for.



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues as support for the Bulls.
Price heading for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - line marked #M1.
Getting the price below the Month Channel Top (1543 for this month) gives the Bears an edge.
Price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the point where the bears see strength.
Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time.
Bulls dominate all three screens now..



Month Channel's red Top Line is now support and the 'All Time High Line' shows possible resistance #M1 or #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 March to 15 March, 2013 - Support turns Resistance...


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 15 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 15 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 15 March'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw '5919' the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week.
Price stayed above this level on Monday last, Tuesday saw a close at 5914 - so 5919 had changed from Support to Resistance, as we have studied earlier and can see here, here or elsewhere.
For the rest of the week, Price repeatedly tried to close the day above the 5919 resistance and failed.
Thus Bears alert on Tuesday last, saw some honey.
Day channel #5, sees the Price reflecting from the channel top.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows a possible Bull comeback #4.



Resisted by the 50 SMA on the EOD #5, price cracks below last week's support #1.






Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel Middle (blue) and 34 EMA on the EOW, support Bulls #3.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above 5919, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
On the day charts the 5 EMA moving below the 13 SMA, would trigger a fall next week #5.
Support line on the STS #4, to be watched. 


The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace (5919) of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, reverts to being the resistance and the 61.8% mark the support.