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Monday, September 14, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pennant - Week 3 of September 2015.














Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Opening Black Marubozu' on the Medium Term Charts studied last, gives the Index a continuation with an inside week #W1.
  • The Pennant is seen on the Day Charts, as a result of the above #D1.  
Support & Resistance:
  • Index took support above the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day Screen by weekend #D1 - it was resisted by the 5 EMA on the Weekly Chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the day screen, are crossed Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13, after meandering in the middle of the range for a year, is currently attempting a bounce off the oversold line #W2.  

    Wrap:
    Bulls and Bears exchange dominance thro' the week, to produce a Pennant #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • 'Pennant' on the Day Chart is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the long term screen (once again) is the support that Bulls want to stay above #M1. Index has resistance at the Daily MVWAP 34  #D1. 
    Moving Averages:
    • Death Cross on the EOD, is active as long as the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA stay crossed Bearishly (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #D1,
    Indicators:
    • TSI slips below the 50% retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls and Bears seek resolution of the range defined by the Pennant #D1, this week.


    Europe CAC 40 - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Squeeze - Week 3 of September 2015.






    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Bears stay above the Kumo and even touch the Tenakan Sen, only to end with a weak red candle, last week #W2.
    Chikou Span points up, at the Tenkan Sen, staying below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, steady #W3.
    Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow, but steady #W3.


    Wrap: 

    Bulls keep above the Kumo, and make another unsuccessful attempt, at closing above the Tenkan Sen #W2. 
    Bears manage another red candle last week #W2.


    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Chikou Span is crossed  below the Price line (Its called a 'Weak Bearish cross because it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e above the Kumo) #W1.
    Index staying above the Kumo, gives the Bulls hope #W2.
    Price candles are squeezed near the Kumo, giving the Bulls and Bears little empty space to float in  #W2.
    The narrow gap between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen, good for Bulls, as a re-cross is easier #W2.


    Wrap:

    Bulls and Bears face a squeeze for space - its either into the Kumo or clear out above the Tenkan Sen-Kijun Sen - other signals being evenly balanced #W2.


    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Green Shoot ? - Week 3 of September 2015.













    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

     

    Patterns:
    • The Head & Shoulder formation, gives lower lows for the Bears #W1 - however Bulls get a green week as they shoot off off the Day Channel's Bottom #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1 was support as studied.   The 13 SMA on the EOD was resistance #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens, for the past few weeks.
    Indicators:
    • On the Month chart, TRD at the Fibonacci 38.2% mark #M2.

    Wrap:

    Bears make a lower low but fail to stay below the Day Channel's bottom line #D1.
    Bulls hold the index above the monthly Pivot's S1 and claim a green week #D1.





    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target #W1, remains a possibility (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls again have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Day Channel #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA crossing above the 13 SMA, and holding there, is critical for Bull Success this week (touch point for Monday is 7869) #D.
    Indicators:
    • The STS, staying below the oversold line, is good for Bears #W2.


    Wrap :
    Bears with all screens in their control, look to drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart #W1. 
    Bulls after the bounce from the Day channel's bottom, seek a bullish cross of the 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the EOD Screen  #D1.




    China SSEC - Ichimoku Study - Kumo Rise - Week 3 of September 2015.





    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: 
    (click here for the previous post)


    Bulls produce a green candle kicking off at the rising Kumo,  #W1.

    Chikou Span turns up below the Price line #W1.
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B, narrow to touch point, steady #W3.


    Wrap: 
    After the bearish Chikou Span cross, Index again finds support at the Kumo #W1.
    Bulls use the rising Kumo to go green #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bearish Chikou Span Cross (its called a 'weak bearish signal' as it occurred when the index was Bullish i,e. above the Kumo) in danger of a re-cross #W2.

    Bears now need to get the Price line to close in the Kumo, to keep dominance of this screen #W1. 
    Gap between the Senkou Span A & B at #W3, is near closing - a Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross Possible.



    Wrap:
    A Bearish Senoku Span cross and a weekly close inside the Kumo #W3, are what the Bears need to achieve to keep their advantage.
    Getting back above the Tenkan Sen #W2, with a re-cross by the Chikou Span, to above the Price line #W1, is the Bull strategy for a coup.