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Sunday, December 2, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 November to 30 November, 2012 - Bulls have close shave




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 30 November, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 30 November, 2012
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011, onward.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  30 November, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  Channel analyzing Data from Sept'2012, onward.






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bulls avert a Three Inside Down #1, with the last candle (November) closing just above the October Close - That was a close one :)
Bulls also close it above the 5 EMA (#1) on EOM and MVWAP 34 (#5) on the EOD.
Bulls have their nose ahead and into the EOW channel #3.
%D and %K on the STS #2 look like they have crossed bearishly after all.

Last week saw the Bulls maintain status 'quo on the medium term, and the Month Close retains Bull control of the Long Term Charts.


Looking forward into the next Week:

Averting a Bearish Three Inside Down #1 - gives the Bulls relief.
Bulls need to follow this up with the 5 EMA (# 3) crossing above the 13 SMA - a deflection however would show us that the Bears have the edge.
Keeping inside the EOW channel #3 - Bulls keep hopes alive.
Slipping out of the EOW channel #3 or more important below the MVWAP 34 on the EOD #5 - Bears have a clear run back to the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.

Bulls retained the edge by a whisker - now to see if the Bears can wrest the advantage back.






CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 November to 30 November, 2012 - Bears lose Fort




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 30 November, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.




Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 30 November, 2012
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.




Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 30 November, 2012
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls break through the Bear Fort and our mark of 5650, early in the week and some Settlement short covering sees them sprint ahead to new Highs.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing bullishly on the short term chart #5, gave early indication of the Bull resolve.
MACD #6 - pops above the center line.
STS staying in oversold and may rendezvous with the resistance line #4 again.


The Nifty has gone Beta Bullish relative to the World Indices - Keeping this going in December would bring in a Happy New Year.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


The next resistance on the EOD #5 is seen as the Intra year high of 2011.
The red channel top of the EOD channel is the immediate support #5.
Resistance on the Indicator #4 present.
Red Channel Top #3 - next target for the Bulls.
Short Fuse indicator #2, to the watched for how it opens in December.


With the World Indices having a more muted close to the month, in comparison to the Nifty - one needs continued supply of local cues to keep the Bullish momentum going.