Sunday, December 30, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 24 December to 28 December, 2012 - Bears break in..

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 28 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 28 December, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

As pointed out last week - the Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3, was the key - what looked like a Bullish cross turned into a Bearish deflection giving the watchful Bear the honey...
Also as repeated for the past few weeks - the Bulls slithering along the green bottom line of the EOW Channel #3, failed to move back into it and saw a small slide.
On the long term charts - one sees a close below the 5 EMA  #1.
The EOD Channel #5 gets broken on the lower end.
Bulls see a close below the critical MVWAP 34 on the short term charts #5.

Last week saw the Bulls and Bears break 'Status quo' on the medium term and short term - Bears get the Honors.

Looking forward into the next Week:

The Ellipses marked #1,#2 and #3 indicate the focus areas on the long, medium and short term charts that we study this week.
The Bearish Deflection on the EOW #3 and the Bearish Cross on the EOD #5 of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA - indicate short term strength of the Bears - reversals here is what the Bulls look out for.
RSI moving above or below the MA #4 is another sign to notice.
STS position #2, in the oversold zone, indicate long term strength of Bulls.
Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom #3, support is initially at the MVWAP 34, see #3 and then the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.

After the Bear Slide of last week - one could watch the MVWAP 34 on the Day Chart - retake of this MA by the Bulls is one of the first signs of a fightback.