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Sunday, September 1, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Takuri, Once More..



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears another Takuri Week, after a volatile Month Close.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands again last week  #5.
  • Index after cracking the Day Channel and pulling back to its bottom #5 exactly last week - repeats performance this week too. 
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 2008 Low to the All time High #3 - supports the Weekly close again.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • 200 SMA on the Medium Term #3 - holds the Index in closing, for the second week running..
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly #1, giving the Bears the Long Term Screen..
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line for the Month close.
  • MACD Histograms diverge positive relative to price again,  MACD and its MA poised for a cross #6.
  • STS #4 stays down after diving into the oversold after 18 odd months.



Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5, get a 700+ point fall and run into the Takuri Line twice...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The day channel bottom #5 is again the resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls like in last week #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 200 SMA on the EOW - to be watched for failure.
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 seem to want a Bullish Cross.
 Indicators:
  • STS remaining in the over-sold zone - critical for Bears to retain the Medium Term.



Bulls would love a Golden Cross #5 -  Bears hope to stay below the EOD Channel bottom #5.