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Sunday, September 15, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls go up to a H&S :- Week: 09 September to 13 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 13 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term Chart, develops into a 'Three  Inside Up' as studied last week #W1.
  • Last Two Weekly candles were 'Opening White Marubozus' and the current form of the Monthly Candle is a Bullish Marubozu.
  • Last Week's candle lines up to form the right shoulder of a Bearish 'Head &Shoulder' Pattern #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 which was resistance for Bulls last week.
  • The Long Term 5 EMA remains support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
  • Index butting into the Day Channel Top which is resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch and deflect Bullishly #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 surges above the 50 mark - RSI crosses above the MA #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading for the over-bought zone  #D2.
  • Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls get the Short Term Screen too - Bears fight to keep the Day Channel from cracking #D1. 



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' was studied using links from herehere or elsewhere.
  • The Last two candles on the Weekly Charts are bullish 'Opening White Marubozus' and they are worth a study here, here or anywhere
  • Bearish 'Head and Shoulder' Chart Pattern (study here, here or happy hunting) would worry the Bulls #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the Channel Top #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI staying above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Marubozus' and the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears would love a H&S #W1.