Sunday, February 26, 2012

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Technical Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Consolidation Times..

Recap: We saw the Dual Channel tops - Day and Week channels - as a possible reason for consolidation, in last week's 'Looking Forward & EOD' (post here). The correction started at channel top (post here). The Fib 76x was seen as support for throwback - and so it was (post here). We started analyzing the SP500 with all three screens (post here).

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): As always we take a 'Long Distance View' of the Nifty with the chart above - where each candle is a Month's data. The pullback to the green channel is still on - and we look forward to the 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross to ring in Bull times again. The area in the square as marked above - is what we analyze with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Week chart (EOW): We have a consolidation around the channel top - which is good, so long as the Bulls get moving again, into the new 'up' channel marked (black lines) above. The lower volume bar for this red candle week, should give the Bulls the required zest. EOD analysis of the area marked with a blue square is up next.

Nifty - End of Day - 24 Feb  2012
Nifty - End of Day chart (EOD): The Correction was supported at the Fib 76x as we calculated - however Price did not bounce back into the comfort zone for the Bulls. A bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA looks imminent.  One notes that the Longer term Bullish cross of the 34 EMA over 200 DMA is still intact and this correction would test the strength of the Bull resolve on that count.

Looking Forward:  End of Month data is important later on in the week.  Bulls get back the 'power' above the 5484 mark and would look at keeping above the Fib 76x (5414) to keep momentum.  Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously.