Saturday, August 25, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 20 Aug to 24 August, 2012 - Fibonacci Hold

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.  

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 24 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bulls continue to fail at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement (3) of the Nifty's all time high and last major low (2008) - now shown on the EOW.
Bulls had stayed above the 5 EMA & 34 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) & EOD (5) - for most of the week - however it slipped below the 5 EMA on the Day Chart (5) on Friday.
Bulls crack the EOW channel top (3) and STS (4) resistance, last week.
Negative Divergence on the MACD (6), is visible. 
The month at present looks like its forming a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern' (1).

Looking Forward into the next Week:
The Fibonacci 76.4% (5),  is the next Resistance for the Bulls.
The negative divergence (6) helps the bears.
Falling to below the MVWAP 34 (Monthly), approx 5315 would recharge the Bears.
Bearish cross or Bullish deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (5) is on the cards.
Closing above the Fibonacci 76.4% for the Month would give long term Bulls their cake.
Keeping above the EOW channel top, keeps the Long term Bear on hold.