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Monday, February 16, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - History Repeats its rewards - Week 3 of February 2015.















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats and rewards the alert Bull, as Bulls come back with a green February (to date) #M1.
  • Bear hope on, as Month Charts have a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the index just above previous ATH (All Tiem High), after taking off from the MVWAP 34  on the weekly chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The all important, 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the short term screen, is Bullishly Crossed  #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 is above the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
    Bulls learn from History and reach the ATH with a long green candle for February #M3.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2013), are supports the Bears want to get the Index, back to.
    • Current ATH (2097) and EOD Channel Top #D1, are levels, which Bulls would want to get above.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bullishly as long as the index is above 2040 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1 and #M3.
    Bears seek get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1 by February end, to prevent the above.