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Monday, October 13, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Tussle - Week 3 of October 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 10 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 10 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 10 Oct'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Evening Doji Star happens if index stays below 7964 this month - Bulls fail to sustain above this number all last week #M1.
  • 'Inside Bar' on the weekly chart is followed by a High Wave candle #W1.
  • Tussle at the current Day Channel bottom sees Bulls finding respite at earlier Day Channel bottom (blue) all last week #D1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears crack the 13 SMA on the EOW after getting below 7912, the October Wall #W1.
  • Bulls find support at S1 of the Monthly Pivot #M1,
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD remain Bearishly crossed #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD dives below the zero line - Histogram ticks up #D2. 

Wrap:
Index below the October Wall (7912) after Bears light the hope of an Evening Doji Star happening #M1. Bulls back up against S1 of the monthly pivot #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening is brighter and now depends on this month's close (below 7964) #M1.
  • Inside Day' Pattern on the Weekly Chart (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active as is the next candle the 'High Wave' (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
  • Tussle at the current and earlier Day Channel bottoms should resolve early in the week to allow the channels to re-form #D1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Index support that the Bulls want to hold, is the S1 on the Monthly Pivot and 7760 #W1.
  • Bears look to defend the 5 EMA on the weekly charts (7943) and 7964 #W1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW will cross Bearishly below 7760 #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above the S1 of the Month Pivot #M1, and closing above 7964 are high on the Bull agenda for the Month.
Bears have all of October to work for an Evening Doji Star #M1, immediate task is to keep the Index below the October Wall (7912).