Saturday, March 10, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Doji'ng the Bears..

Recap: The SP500 was resisted at last year's high and we looked for direction in last week's study (post here). The index had developed a Bearish Harami on the EOD and it was below the 5 EMA. However  we had assessed then, that it was not yet 'Advantage Bears'. 

In last weeks action the Bulls took the index back above the 5 EMA on the EOD charts and this fightback keeps the Bulls on top - what next?

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 09 March 2012
S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM): The MA crossovers we studied last week are still in place, the divergences have vanished as of now. This chart looks distinctly Bullish, but for the hesitation written on the peak - in struggling to move above last year's high.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012
S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW): After 4 weeks of staying above the 5 EMA, this week's candle has taken support near the 10 EMA. The Bulls have dodged the Bears this week with a 'Doji'. So let us read about that - as a refresher from some free resources on the net...

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 09 March  2012
S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bulls were happy to stay within the same channel as last week, and stage a bounce back, to end on top, above the 5 EMA. The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA remains - leaving the Bulls with diminished momentum. 
Since we are a Study Blog - here is something to mull on...inspired by the last three candles on the chart above..

Looking Forward: The long term Charts viz. the EOM and EOW, are in Bull mode. On the EOD one sees some hope for the Bears. If the 5 EMA 13 SMA cross remains Bearish and the price then breaks below 5 EMA, one sees early signs of Bear strength. Staying within the current channel on the EOD keeps the Bull safe for now.