CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - Bear that Dawn..

Learnings from the Past Week:

We came into the past week with the Bears in command of the Nifty.

The Nifty continued to trend downwards, we discussed the start of the current move here (click).

Following the Bearish 'Three Inside Down' on the EOM (click) - May has made a huge red candle.

As we learned in the previous Ichimoku Cloud Analysis - the times are dark for the Longs.

Where does one go from here - what follows these dark hours for the Bull?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 11 May, 2012. 

We noted at the beginning of this month's candle, that 5199 was the mark to stay above - for a Bull (click).

Sliding below that caused the Nifty to reach 4929 in quick time, with the some help from the Bearish candle pattern, seen above.

Currently the big Bullish cue, that the Nifty presents for the Long term, is on the EOD charts - the Bullish Golden Cross and the 34 EMA over the 200 DMA - which are still alive.

Lets see what the EOW has to offer..

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We were watching this screen all of last week (click).

The bears seemed to have made off with the cake - however a different perspective was shown for the record (click).

The Stochastic Indicator also seems to be telling us, that a consolidation is possible here.

As things stand - Bears have the power and all the Short MAs that we watch, are crossed Bearishly.

On to the the EOD then..

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We have moved to a candle chart for this study - just for a change.

Closing below the 5 EMA, all of last week - Bears had an easy job of sliding down the index.

Our old friend, the MACD remains in the minus - we watched that one from the start.

Channel mid point (blue line) and Fibonacci 61x, are the next scheduled stops.

Looking Forward into the next week:

Momentum across all screens - is with the Bears - as of this time.

Even the Long Term Bullish Crosses we studied, can Un-Cross themselves in a week, at this rate of fall.

Which is exactly why the contra thinking, confirmed Bulls among us would enjoy the next few days.

If this is the darkest hour - can the dawn be far?

Intra-week updates shall be up, to capture the action, next.

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 07 May to 11 May 2012 - Kijun Sen Folds..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 11 May, 2012.  

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

7. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

From the Chart as marked...

3. After Supporting the Price for 7 odd weeks the Kijun Sen gives way - setting up last week's fall.

4. Tenkan Sen is fast approacing the Kijun Sen, for a cross that could be a Strong Bearish Signal.

5. The MVWAP 34 which was broken last week, acted as the resistance this week.

6. The Chikou Span is close enough to the price to cross it anytime, to give a Weak Bullish Signal.

Incidentally the Flat Kumo (Ko) effect is absent from last week on..

Conclusion: 

Bears have taken over this screen totally.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - Yo Yo at the Tenkan Sen.

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

https://www.ichimokutrade.com/articles/Ichimoku_Ebook.pdf

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 11 May 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (S)

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

6. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (minor signal - see arrow)

From the Chart as marked...

1. We notice that for the last half dozen odd weeks, the Weeks candle has played yo yo with the Tenkan Sen. The gravitational pull of the Flat Kumo, is therefore evident. 

2. EW Oscillator is ticking towards minus regardless of the Yo Yo played above.

Conclusion: 
Bulls continue to dominate this screen. 
Bears need to Keep Index below the Tenkan Sen, to have a chance of taking this one over. 

Playing Yo Yo perpetually, will not help the Bull Cause. 

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - One for the Bull & One for the Bear !

Learnings from the Past Week:

Our view 'Looking Forward' into the past week, was that the EOD channel (yellow), should hold the price action (click).

We had an Intra week EOD analysis (click) which confirmed this.

The EOD channel (yellow) held the price line...that was One for the Bulls.
The Bears however did break the White Week Channel -so One for the Bears.

Is it 'come back' time for Bulls? or would the Bears press the Down Button next week ?

Lets weigh the options...

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart  each candle is 1 month's price action  (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 11 May, 2012. 

We start with the EOM - Almost 4 years Data is held in the channel shown above.

We have moved to candle chart - to see this month's evolving pattern better.

The highlighted candles show the 'Three Inside Down" in progress - first discussed, end April 2012 (click). 

Price has slipped below the 5 EMA.

Bulls are on top on this long term chart - but its a shaky existence below the 5 EMA. 

We zoom in for a closer look, with the EOW charts as below.....

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 11 May, 2012.

We look at the EOW - which houses 3 Quarter's data in the white channel, shown cutting across the RBG Month Channel.

The medium term screen, screams Bear - for now.

The White Week Channel gets broken, most short term MAs are crossed bearishly.

The last three candles almost make a 'Three Outside Down'

To close back inside this channel, would be what the Bulls would want here.

To see if that would happen - lets zoom in closer with the EOD charts below...

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 11 May, 2012.  

Data from Mid March 2012, is captured for analysis, in the yellow EOD channel above.

As anticipated last weekend - this channel held the price action.

Price is still below all short term MAs we watch, and they are all bearishly crossed.

The histogram has started ticking towards the plus.

This screen just about makes it into the Neutral zone.

Looking Forward into next Week:

Holding the yellow channel on the EOD, the Bulls should attempt the MVWAP 34.

Keeping the Bulls away from a retake of the Week Channel, would keep the Bears in Business.

The positive divergence on the EOD - MACD histogram (yellow arrow)- gives the Bull some hope.

Intra Week Updates as warranted - shall be up.

EOW Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 11 May 2012 - One for the Bears & One for the Bulls..

The Nifty started Trending downwards, last week (click).

Our Weekend analysis (click) showed on the EOW, an 'Old Resistance line' - now a 'Support line' - as the bottom end of the range for the week. 

We analyzed above in our EOD Analysis - Intra week (click). 

Price Broke through this support line in last week's action.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Candle Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We have our EOW chart, with only the above Support line, and the Price break highlighted with a blue circle.

Clearly shows that price has indeed cracked through this line.

See also the action on the Stochastic Indicator similarly highlighted. 

This one is for the Bears...

Look below for another view..

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOW Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Line Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We use a line chart and do a 'ditto' analysis as above.

Channel line orientation changes subtly.

Break is yet to happen here.

This one is for the Bulls...

Needless to say its up to the individual trader to choose her/his preference of Candle/Bar or Line Chart.

We just want to present both perspectives.

Do check out same, on your charts too..

Here are some weekend reads, which I use, to study Channels....

http://www.studyforex.com/channel-pattern.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis3.asp#axzz1uZM0ZjLu
http://www.marketvolume.com/technicalindicators/pricechannel.asp