Saturday, May 12, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 07 May to 11 May, 2012 - One for the Bull & One for the Bear !

Learnings from the Past Week:
Our view 'Looking Forward' into the past week, was that the EOD channel (yellow), should hold the price action (click).
We had an Intra week EOD analysis (click) which confirmed this.
The EOD channel (yellow) held the price line...that was One for the Bulls.
The Bears however did break the White Week Channel -so One for the Bears.
Is it 'come back' time for Bulls? or would the Bears press the Down Button next week ?
Lets weigh the options...

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart  each candle is 1 month's price action  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 11 May, 2012. 
We start with the EOM - Almost 4 years Data is held in the channel shown above.
We have moved to candle chart - to see this month's evolving pattern better.
The highlighted candles show the 'Three Inside Down" in progress - first discussed, end April 2012 (click). 
Price has slipped below the 5 EMA.
Bulls are on top on this long term chart - but its a shaky existence below the 5 EMA. 
We zoom in for a closer look, with the EOW charts as below.....

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 11 May, 2012.
We look at the EOW - which houses 3 Quarter's data in the white channel, shown cutting across the RBG Month Channel.
The medium term screen, screams Bear - for now.
The White Week Channel gets broken, most short term MAs are crossed bearishly.
The last three candles almost make a 'Three Outside Down'
To close back inside this channel, would be what the Bulls would want here.
To see if that would happen - lets zoom in closer with the EOD charts below...

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 11 May, 2012.  
Data from Mid March 2012, is captured for analysis, in the yellow EOD channel above.
As anticipated last weekend - this channel held the price action.
Price is still below all short term MAs we watch, and they are all bearishly crossed.
The histogram has started ticking towards the plus.
This screen just about makes it into the Neutral zone.

Looking Forward into next Week:
Holding the yellow channel on the EOD, the Bulls should attempt the MVWAP 34.
Keeping the Bulls away from a retake of the Week Channel, would keep the Bears in Business.
The positive divergence on the EOD - MACD histogram (yellow arrow)- gives the Bull some hope.
Intra Week Updates as warranted - shall be up.