Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, January 8, 2012

CNX Nifty: Week ending 06 Jan 2012.

Recap:

Our bullish scenario for the first week of 2012 had Nifty moving above 4650. We analyzed the moves Nifty made thro' intra week posts on the 60 minute charts (3 posts) - Nifty moved past the 4650 resistance, was resisted at the 34 EMA and settled at 4747 for the week.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 06 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Day Chart:

The Nifty is in neutral zone compared to deep red last weekend. The strong resistance first at the 34 SMA and then at the 34 EMA had held the Bulls down. Moving past these, Fib 61x and the red channel top beckon.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 06 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart:

The Nifty spent yet another week closing below the all important 200 DMA. The STS too gives the Bulls a dismal picture. Since we are on the subject of DMA again and again, here is some read up that I found useful...

http://tradingsim.com/blog/displaced-moving-average/

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 06 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Month Chart:

The lower indicator on this chart has turned up finally giving the Bulls something to look up to. The 5 EMA remains the next barrier. The throw back to the green line after that?

Looking Forward:
The week after a down spiral was bucked, always has some consolidation. Expect a clear trend to emerge a bit into the week. Intra-week posts shall be up.

Update with 60 Min - 06 01 2012 - Revisit the 34EMA..Bingo!

Nifty - 60 Minute Chart - 02 to 06 Jan 2012

In our last post on this subject (here) we concluded that the Nifty was good for another go at the blue 34EMA line - world cues willing. We got the world cues with a channel break (here) and as one can see below the purple arrow head - Bulls would have anticipated the 100 point move from sub 4700 to 34EMA around 4800 !

Saturday, January 7, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Channel Break!

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 02 Jan 2012.

Our last post on this subject anticipated a 'retreat from' or 'break of' the top line of the falling channel shown above. We have a break. The break of the upper channel line of a weekly channel should have the price shooting up....however we observe from our monthly study (here) that all this is a pullback to the bottom of the monthly channel which is officially breached if Jan 2012 closes above 1303. So we wait for that event and watch the space around the weekly channel top where the action will now be centered.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Update with 60 Min - 05 01 2012 - Resisted near the 34EMA..

Nifty - 60 Minute Chart - 02 to 05 Jan 2012

In our last post (here) we saw the 34 EMA as the first line of resistance for the Nifty after it crossed the 4650 (red line in chart above) mark. Now we see that the Nifty has made about half a dozen attempts to cross the resistance about 15 odd points below the 34EMA (for convenience shown with a blue line at 4800, the 34 EMA on the EOD Chart is around 4800 for last couple of days). Nifty is still good for a go at the blue line - world cues willing... check that out here

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Update with 60 Min 03 01 2012 - Bucking the trend..

60 Minute Chart - 02 and 03 Jan 2012

We concluded the last post (here) with the view that the 4650 (red line in chart above) level was critical resistance for this week - notice how the price attempts to cross the line twice yesterday and fails - and gaps up today to get the Bulls celebrating with a nice rally to 4765. The alert Bull would have entered long today for a 90 point gain. On the EOD chart here the next resistance is the 34 EMA as shown then the Fib61x the higher end of our range shown. Nifty is now back to Neutral zone (from Bear zone last weekend) along with most of the world.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.