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Monday, February 9, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - History Repeats - Week 2 of February 2015.

















Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index closed last month below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, this sub 5 EMA close occurred after about 3 years - see pink arrow #M3 - however History repeats as Bulls come back with a green month #M1.
  • Bear hope up, as Month Charts see a 'Three Inside Down' - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the index just above the 13 SMA on the weekly charts, after taking off from the MVWAP 34  on the same chart #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen, remain Bearishly Crossed  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 around the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bears trigger a Long Term Three Inside Down last month #M1.
    Bulls come back with a long green candle for February - History repeats? #M3.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Bears produce a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 on the Long Term Screen (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    • A failed 'Three inside down', which we studied about three years ago (here and here) - was seen when the Index slipped below the 5 EMA, the last time (pink arrow #M3). Exact set-up seen now - so that is worth a study #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2013), are supports the Bulls look to keep above, this week.
    • 2050 (13 SMA on the Week Chart #W1) and 2080 are levels, which Bears would want to stay below.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly as long as the index is below 2080 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace, cheers the Bears #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls hope History would repeat itself in February, and another Bull run would emanate from the current set-up #M1.
    Bears seek get back below the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1, to prevent the above.