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Monday, January 27, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014, Bears Move - Week 5 of January 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 24 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
  • January 2014 candle remains red #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears move Index below the 5 EMA on weekly chart, even as the MVWAP and Channel Bottom fail to support the Bulls #W1.
  • Bulls stay above the 5 EMA on the Monthly chart #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the EOD the 5 EMA bearishly crosses below the 13 SMA mid-week #D1.
  • On the EOW the 5 EMA poised to - deflect Bullishly or Cross Bearishly - the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, slips from the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls saw red all year and now lose strength - Bears take the Short Term and close to taking the Medium Term too..   



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - seems spent.
  • Medium Term Chart shows a Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) with the last three candles #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are now resistance for the Bulls.
  • Medium Term MVWAP 34 #W1, is the next Support.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to stay below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1817) to stay in the game #W1.
  • Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOW above the 13 SMA (i.e. keep above 1793) to get some life back #W1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the over sold, works for the Bears #D1.
  • Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  


Wrap:
Bears seek to keep their momentum with a stay below 1817 - Bulls want life back and the Index above 1793.