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Monday, January 27, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall to ATH - Week 5 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern followed by two green candles.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears held near Channel mid line Support on the EOD just below the Wall (6280), while Bulls were again resisted last week around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343) for the third time this year.
  • Index builds on last week's gains, staying above the 13 SMA (EOD) for most of the week but dives (Friday) to close below the 13 SMA (EOD) and Monthly 'Pivot Point' (Learn herehere or elsewhere) again #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • Medium Term Screen's 5 EMA was the support for Bulls last week #W1. 
  • The short term 5 EMA close to Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line marked, a strong support for Bulls #W1. 
  • MACD and its MA poised to meet for cross or deflection #D2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all screens - Bears keep index below the Wall (6280) #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6191), is again support for the Index #W1.
  • Around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343), Bulls see strong resistance.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Getting above the 13 SMA on the EOD is the immediate Bull task, while getting the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA ,is the Bear ask  #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to cross and sustain above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) to avoid a red series.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the ATH - Bears plan to stay below the Wall and break 6191.