Sunday, August 18, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 August to 16 August: 2013 - Bears take the Short Term

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 16 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 16 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 16 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Support & Resistance:
  • Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
  • The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip #D1 or #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls just about defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • 34 MVWAP gives way to the Bear attack on the Day charts #D1. 
  • RSI 13 goes below the 50 mark after Divergence to Price became apparent #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) dips below oversold  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.

Bears take the Short Term Screen.

Looking forward into the next Week:

  • On the Medium Term Chart the Three Inside Down we studied last week is still on #W1. (Study Links herehere or anywhere else.)
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support. 
  • We also have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively. 
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears - notice that its repeating what it did in previous attempts.
  • RSI sliding below its MA and the negative divergence to Price works for the Bears #W1

Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look for life above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #D1.