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Sunday, August 18, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 August to 16 August: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 3



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 16 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 16 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 16 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears even more honey.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - gave Bears support from July End..
Support & Resistance:
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' fails again last week  #5.
  • Index bounces off our Day Channel's bottom #5 exactly once more
  • 5655 cleared by the Bulls until Friday last - retaken by Bears emphatically.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • Index again takes support on the stable 34 EMA, on the Long Term Chart  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line.
  • MACD Histogram ticks up,  MACD and its MA look at meeting up #6.
  • STS #4 dives into the oversold after 18 odd months.



Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5 and stay strong...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the next available support for the Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5 keeps the Bulls under pressure, as seen on Friday last.. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 are currently Bearishly Crossed (Index below 5655) it can Bullishly Deflect if Index gets above 5655 for August.  
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 Bearishly Deflected last Week - a Bullish Cross would be just the impetus for the Bulls to get back some ground.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run if the Bulls get to stay above it from August.



Bulls want life above 5655 and a Golden Cross -  Bears again wish to crack the 34 EMA #1 and the EOD Channel bottom #5.