Saturday, April 21, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 16 April to 20 April, 2012 - Flat Truce..

Last weekend we saw the Bears well entrenched in the short term (click).
Later in the week we studied the moves, that the Bulls made to Neutralize the Bears (click and click)
Price has followed our channel lines with Ninja Discipline.
As expected, the Moving VWAP34, was the resistance in the short term, all of last week. 
Lets look at our three screens to find out the action points.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 20 April, 2012. 
Three years worth of data is analyzed with the channel drawn above.
This screen has reversed from last week's positions.
Price is above all MAs once again.
Bears have lost the tiny toehold, they had last week.
The Bulls rule the long term view.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 20 April, 2012.  
We zoom in with white weekly channel lines as above, and study the last six months price action for a sharper picture.
We have a Bullish Harami (See links to some free resources below).
The White channel bottom has been support, for last two weeks...Bears are yet to crack it.
Price is back above most short term MAs, with no Bearish Crossovers.
Bulls would hope that the Bullish Harami, would mutate into a 'Three Inside up".
Bears would give another shot at the Channel bottom (white)
This screen is neutral, despite last week's price action.

Bullish Harami (low reliability):
Three Inside up (High Reliability):

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 20 April, 2012.  
To get a sense of the most recent trend, we use the yellow day channel lines presented above, which covers about 50 days price information. 
Price has rigorously followed the realigned channel lines.
M VWAP 34 has been the resistance yet again.
None of the MAs that we follow, have crossed over 'Bullishly' yet..
MACD histogram is just about in the postive.
Bear hold is nebulous, and they need to crack that White channel line soon.

Looking Forward:
MVWAP 34 (EOD) to our While Channel bottom (EOW), is the range to break, going into next week.
Longs would pin their hopes on the Bullish Harami (EOW), even if its reliability is low...