Saturday, April 21, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 16 April to 20 April 2012 - Bull Hold

......Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


We do an weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we study.
When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  
When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 
Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 
However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  
How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?
There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.
Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a on...

Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - purple line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 20 April 2012  
Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)
3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)
4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

6Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish  Signal (minor signal - see arrow)

1. Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. In this case back from Bear to Bull (reverse of last week - now we know why this is a minor signal).

Conclusion is same as pointed out last week, 'Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to have a chance of taking this one over.'