CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 03 Feb 2012

Recap: We understood that the bears were at a disadvantage above the 34 EMA and planned to watch the US S&P 500 month close (post here). We took direction from the US S&P 500 (post here) and watched the 200 DMA being taken out (post here). We also noticed that 13 was unlucky for Bears :) as a 13 month old channel resistance gave way to the Bull onslaught (post here). We ended the week with a couple of studies (just below this post).

                                                            Nifty - End of Month Chart - 03 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): The month candle is in the oversold zone. The Bullish stance is studied in the Ichimoku Update (here). A cross of the SMA 13 and EMA 5 needs to be watched - lets now zero in on the 'circled' area with the EOW chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 03 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): A major resistance gave way last week - freeing the bulls and making the bears run for cover. The channels to be watched are marked on the Price and oscillator. Let's now zoom in on the highlighted area with a EOD analysis.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 03 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): With the 200 DMA being crossed last week, it becomes our support for now.  Resistance is same as last week - the Fib 76x. Throw back now should not go beneath the 200 DMA. 

Looking forward: 5414 thereabouts is where the Fib76x is located. With some ranging between this level and the 200 DMA, one sees the up move safe to resume. Divergences on the Oscillators (EOD-chart) and World cues matter (analyzed in the post here). Intra Week updates shall be up.

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - 03 02 2012 - above the blues

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 30 to Feb'03, 2012

Our End of Jan'12 Analysis (post here) concluded that it was Advantage Bulls. Since then the bulls have moved the index up 30 odd points, keeping well above the BLUE middle line of the monthly channel (shown above). The 3 white lines show the Weekly channel (update from old post here). Moving above the middle line of the Weekly channel is what would keep the Bulls on their toes next week.

EOW (update) Analysis CNX Nifty - 02 02 2012 - Thirteen and still lucky?

Nifty 02 02 2012 End of Week Chart - update

We have the fine tuned EOW Channel that we study, above - updated at this crucial time for your perusal. As things stand now, its a channel which has stood for 13 months and appears to have luck on its side until now - will it give way this week ?

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 01 02 2012 - Global Cues and the 200DMA

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 01 Feb  2012

In our ' Looking Forward ' for this week (post here) we suggested that " .. we should watch this month's close of the S&P 500.." The relevant post (below) analyzed that its 'Advantage Bulls' so far as the S&P is concerned. No coincidence then, that Nifty cracked the all important 200 DMA soon after. 


The Fib 76x now comes into our radar, divergences (marked)on the indicators need to be noted. We are also exactly at the channel top of the 13 month old weekly channel seen in the Analysis of the  Nifty End of Week Chart  (post here) - that is a 13 month old resistance !                  

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012 - Advantage Bulls.

S&P 500 - End of Month, January 2012

We studied this chart for the last three months of 2011. In our last post (here) we said that " the Bears would be impressed only if 1303+ happens to be the closing for Jan 2012"

January 2012 closed with 1312+ on the chart and its Advantage Bulls. Like the angle of climb of a fighter plane (which maxed out) changes, our channel lines too change after this price action. See new chart below. Staying above the Blue line is what would keep the Bulls in play for now...

S&P 500 - End of Month,  January 2012 - New Channels