EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 27 02 2012 - Seriously now!

Nifty - End of Day - 27 Feb  2012

We ended last weekend's post (located here) with the words "Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously" Guess the Bears took that to heart ... crashing through the Fib76x (5414) in the first hour, they stopped just short of our red arrow mark on the 34 EMA - a fall of 150+ points. 

The bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA which was discussed as imminent, also has happened. Notice the Volume bar for the day. The 34 EMA and 200 DMA are good supports, for a bounce back by the Bulls. Now however, we take the Bears seriously :)

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Technical Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Consolidation Times..

Recap: We saw the Dual Channel tops - Day and Week channels - as a possible reason for consolidation, in last week's 'Looking Forward & EOD' (post here). The correction started at channel top (post here). The Fib 76x was seen as support for throwback - and so it was (post here). We started analyzing the SP500 with all three screens (post here).

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): As always we take a 'Long Distance View' of the Nifty with the chart above - where each candle is a Month's data. The pullback to the green channel is still on - and we look forward to the 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross to ring in Bull times again. The area in the square as marked above - is what we analyze with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Week chart (EOW): We have a consolidation around the channel top - which is good, so long as the Bulls get moving again, into the new 'up' channel marked (black lines) above. The lower volume bar for this red candle week, should give the Bulls the required zest. EOD analysis of the area marked with a blue square is up next.

Nifty - End of Day - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Day chart (EOD): The Correction was supported at the Fib 76x as we calculated - however Price did not bounce back into the comfort zone for the Bulls. A bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA looks imminent.  One notes that the Longer term Bullish cross of the 34 EMA over 200 DMA is still intact and this correction would test the strength of the Bull resolve on that count.

Looking Forward:  End of Month data is important later on in the week.  Bulls get back the 'power' above the 5484 mark and would look at keeping above the Fib 76x (5414) to keep momentum.  Bears while strong in the current 'short' term, need to go and stay below the Fibonacci  76.4% (EOD) to be taken seriously. 

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - End of Week: 24 Feb 2012 - Almost at last year's High

Recap: We analyzed the S&P with End of Week charts until last week. Now we shall do the full three screens - Month, Week and Day as we do for the Nifty. Last week (see post here) we saw the SP500 eying last year's high and we find as of now, that its still a mite below it.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Month Chart (EOM) : The chart above is an update of the chart we studied end Jan'12 (post here) and learned that it was 'Advantage Bulls'. As one can see highlighted above, the green price line has moved well above the 'Blue Middle Line' of our Monthly channel set. 

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Week Chart (EOW) : For a closer look, we zoom in with the EOW charts. We see the '3 white lines' of the Weekly channel. As we observed for the past few weeks, the SP500 is on a steep rate of climb and is sticking to below the week's middle channel line. Last year's High is yet to be taken out.

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb  2012

S&P 500 End of Day Chart (EOD) : Here you can see the 'red, blue and green' lines of the Month chart. Slashing across it you see the 'three white lines' of the Weekly chart. Hugging below the 'white mid-line' of the Weekly chart are our three 'Yellow' Day chart lines. The SP 500 has stayed above the Middle line of these 3 Day Channel lines. Its also above all the short term MAs viz. 5 EMA, 13 SMA and 10 EMA.

Looking Forward: The Bull option is to break above the Mid-line of the Week channel and the Bear option is to go below the Mid-line of the Daily channel. Current momentum favors the Bull. Divergences (on technical indicators, EOM and EOD) favor the Bear. Closing above last year's high is the next milestone. 

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 24 02 2012 - Bingo :) its Fibonacci Support

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 24 Feb 2012

With a low of 5406 and close at 5429 the Nifty took support at the Fibonnaci 74.6% (5414). 

It however remained below the 5454 that we saw strength for the Bulls at, in our last weekend's post (see Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD) and Looking forward sections of the post here). 

Overall a decent consolidation - long pending and it very nicely took support at the Fib 76x.as we expected. 

Weekend posts are on their way...

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 22 02 2012 - Channel Top Resistance

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 22 Feb 2012

With our weekend analysis (see 'Looking Forward' here) showing that Nifty faced resistance of a weekly and daily channel TOP - we smelled the consolidation in the air. The Bears made an easy 100 points today. Now to see the follow up - if the Fib 76x holds up the fall.