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Monday, October 5, 2015

India - CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave Long - Week 1 of October 2015.











Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index again thwarted at the resistance we studied, the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040) shown on the EOW #W1. This after a fast up-move from sub 7600.
  • High wave candle forms on the Long Term chart  EOM #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOW  was resistance #W1. The October Pivot was the nearest support #M1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA, remains Bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA on the day charts  for the third week running #D1.
Indicators:
  • On the Day chart the  MACD and its MA are bullishly crossed while below the zero line, and the histograms are ticking up #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls again unsuccessful, at breaking 8040, the '76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the ATH' for the 6th week in a row #W1. 
Bears fail to make lower lows #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:
  • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target, remains a possibility if the Neckline (red arrow #W1) is held by the Bears (Study Links herehere or elsewhere). 
  • High Wave Candle on the Month Chart is active (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Support continues at 7484, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2008 low' to the 'ATH'  and resistance continues at 8040, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the 'ATH'  #W1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active, these MAs are diverging #D1.
Indicators:
  • The STS, crossing below its MA, is good for Bears #W2.


Wrap :
Bulls seek victory on their 7th attempt at crossing 8040, the '76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the '2011 low' to the ATH' not unlike Robert the Bruce (link).
Bears would like to follow the H&S to its target #W1.