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Monday, September 7, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears below Neckline - Week 2 of September 2015.













Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

 

Patterns:
  • The Head & Shoulder formation, that we studied for the past few weeks, saw a tussle at the neckline. Its Advantage Bears as of last week's closing #W1.
  • Control of the 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, was critical last week - as the Bears turned down from this level, to close 300+ points lower #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM screen was support #M1.   The 76.4% Fibo retrace (8040), drawn on the EOW screen, was resistance #W1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are crossed bearishly, on all three Screens, for the past couple of weeks.
Indicators:
  • On the Month chart, TRD at the 39x% mark #M2.

Wrap:

Bears close 300+ points below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern we were studying, and get control of all three screens.
Bulls hold the index just inside the new Day Channel #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Bearish H&S pattern reaching target #W1, remains a possibility (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), breaking of the Day Channel bottom #D1, is critical this week #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls have support at the 76.4% Fibo retrace shown on the EOM #M1, Resistance is at the blue Mid-line of the Day Channel #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The Death Cross (50 and 200 SMA) is active and thriving #D1.
Indicators:
  • The STS, staying below the oversold line, is good for Bears #W2.


Wrap :
Bears gaining some momentum, aim to stay below 8040 and drive towards the green bottom line of the Weekly Chart #W1. 
Bulls, seek a bounce from the Day channel's bottom #D1.