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Monday, June 1, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pin Drops - Week 1 of June 2015.












 

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

 

Patterns:
  • Index, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down earlier - produces a Bullish Harami with the last two candles #M1.
  • Week Chart sees a Pinbar as part of a Bearish Harami - see last two candles #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes 10 points above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  and at the daily 50 SMA #D1.
  • Earlier in the week, the weekly 50 SMA #W1, was approached and the congestion area having the daily 5 EMA, 13 SMA and 200 SMA, overcome #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, gets closer for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA stay below the zero line and its Histogram stays above this line #D2.


Wrap:
Bulls after a deep dive below the 38.2% of the move from the 'ATH to the May 2015 bottom' manage to close just above this line #D1.
Bears defend the daily 50 SMA #D1 and halt the index, near the blue middle line of the new Day Channel #D1..





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • A Bullish Harami (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart. A Bearish Harami (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1 is active on the medium term chart. Watch for the Three inside 'up or down' forming next.
  • A Pinbar (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1 is apparent on the weekly chart.
  • The Fibonacci retrace from the ATH to the May 2015 bottom and its retrace possibilities are worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls face resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (8686) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH'  #D1  Support is available, at the Day Channel's bottom line #D1 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH'  #W1 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term charts would cross Bullishly with a weekly close above 8606 #W1.
Indicators:
  • Bulls hope that the TRD would rise from support at the 50% mark this month #M2.


Wrap :
Bulls look to stay above the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (8424) 'of the May 2015 low to the ATH' and close above 8606 #D1 .
Bears, holding the Daily 50 SMA seek to get to below the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040)  as marked #W1.