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Monday, May 11, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 76.8% Fibo - Week 2 of May 2015.














Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - keep the momentum going and meet up with the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' shown on the Week Chart #W1. 
  • Bulls after a minor Pull-back to Channel bottom early in the week, and reversion to down trend thereafter, produce a weekly candle that resembles a 'High Wave' #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index takes support at the 76.8% Fibo retrace #W1 and the Mid Line of the Medium Term Channel. 
  • Resistance was around the Weekly 5 EMA, on Index Pull-back to Channel Bottom #W1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Monthly charts, are close enough for a Bullish deflection or a Bearish cross #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD makes a lower low while its Histogram ticks up #D2.


Wrap:
Bears reach the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart after returning from the Top a couple of months ago #W1..
Bulls fight back to produce a 'High Wave' candle for last week, and close above the Wall #W1.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • A proper Pull-Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) towards the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is again on the wish list, of the Bulls #D1. 
  • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
  • The High Wave candle\s effect on this week's action is worth a study (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls face resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 13 SMA (8525) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
  • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH' and the Mid-line of the Medium Term Chart  #W1 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging #D1.
Indicators:
  • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark, this month #M2.


Wrap :
Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going to again break, and stay below, the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) #W1.