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Monday, May 4, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Support, Pullback & Trend - Week 1 of May 2015.














Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Long Term 'Three Outside Down' is now triggered- see last three candles #M1
  • Index moves down and takes Support on the Bottom line of the new channel  #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index slips below the daily 200 SMA #D1 and takes Support at the weekly 50 SMA #W1 and the S1 of the April Pivot.#M1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, remain crossed bearishly #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its Histogram tick into sub-zero. Histogram goes flat for the last 3 days #D2.


Wrap:
Bears make a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1. Change the 'Trend' to Down and control the Short and Medium Term Screens.
Bulls get some support at three critical points.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • A Pull Back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to the old Day Channel's green bottom,  is on this week's wish list, for the Bulls #D1. 
  • A Three Outside Down (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1 is active on the long term chart.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index faces resistance at the Day Chart's 200 SMA #D1 and the 5 EMA (8411) on the Medium Term Chart #W1. 
  • Support is available, at the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040) 'of the 2011 low to the ATH'  #W1 and the May Wall (8181).
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently converging in to a Death Cross #D1.
Indicators:
  • Bulls hope that the TRD would take support at the 50% mark #M2.


Wrap :
Bulls look to stay above 'The Wall' and break into the green bottom of the Day Channel #D1 .
Bears, after triggering a long term Three Outside Down #M1 - want to keep the momentum going and target the 76.8% Fibonacci retrace (8040), as marked on the Week Chart #W1.