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Monday, January 12, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down, unDone again - Week 3 of January 2015.













Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)




Patterns:
  • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a month close at 8283 #M1. Index closed last week at 8285.
  • Last two candles on the EOW make a Dark Cloud Cover pattern #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes near the January Pivot.
  • Day Channel's blue mid-line, was again the resistance zone.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised again for deflection or cross #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA stay below the zero line  #D2.
  • STS hangs around the over bought line #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls manage to close the week at 8285, marginally above our mark of 8283 Bears come back with a Dark Cloud Cover over the previous week #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
  • Bears produce a Dark Cloud Cover Pattern #W1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the Weekly 13 SMA (8333) and 8394 #W1.
  • Resistances that the Bears seek to stay below, are 8283 and the Wall for January (8174)
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
  • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8394 #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #M1.
Bears see life below 8174, with a shot at getting below the October'14 low on the EOD #D1.