Monday, January 5, 2015

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down, unDone - Week 2 of January 2015.

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

  • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, form a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a close at 8283 #M1.
  • Bulls start, 1 Jan 2015, with a close at 8284, and preempt a 'three outside down' for now.
  • Previous week's Candle on the Medium Term Screen i.e. the 'High Wave' produces a Bullish Continuation for the Index #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index finds support, at the January Pivot.
  • Day Channel's blue mid-line, was again the resistance zone.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, makes a Bullish deflection earlier in the week, keeping above 8151, giving the Bulls a run up #D1.
  • MACD and its MA cross bullishly below the zero line - histogram ticks above zero line  #D2.
  • STS makes a bounce near the over bought line #W2.

Bulls regain full control of the Medium Term while Bears fail to take advantage of the Bearish Engulfing for now #M1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

  • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
  • Bulls start 2015 with a close at 8284 followed by a 100+ point rally the next day. Bears have all of January 2015 to get index below 8283 #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index supports that the Bears want to break below this week, are the Weekly 50 SMA (8317) and Wall for January (8174) #M1.
  • Resistances that the Bulls want to get above, are the Day Channel's blue mid-line #D1, and the previous All Time High (ATH).
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
  • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8212 #W1.
  • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.

Wrap :
Staying above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #W1.
Bears see life below 8212, with a shot at getting below the October'14 low on the EOD #D1.