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Monday, December 1, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Skirmish Line Take-off - Week 1 of December 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 Nov'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 Nov'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 28 Nov'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:
  • Bulls avoid a Long Term Evening Star #M1.
  • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) was again the Skirmish line for Bulls and Bears - Bulls bounce the index on this line, for a Take off, towards the red channel top last week #D1
Support & Resistance:
  • Index yo-yo'd about the old EOD channel top (Blue) and again used the Daily 13 SMA as support last week #D1. R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1, was resistance broken.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD, stay Bullishly crossed after the mild deflection of the previous week #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA meet again in deflection D2.


Wrap:
Bulls are dominant across all screens, index nearing critical channel tops.
Bears again lose advantage at the skirmish line, but hold below the EOD channel top #D1. 




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • October candle the Closing White Marubozu (Study Links herehere or elsewhere),  produces good results for the Bulls in November #M1.
  • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) is now the support that the Bulls need to stay above, to be able to carry on to the red channel top #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the Wall for December (8494) and the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
  • Bears look to get the Index below the old EOD channel top (blue) #D1.. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
  • Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD needs to be watched for #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS has stayed in the overbought for 3 Quarters now, reflects Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above the blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel resistance #D1.
Bears want to see the Index below the Wall for December 8494.