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Monday, November 24, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Skirmish Line Action - Week 4 of November 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 Nov'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 Nov'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 22 Nov'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)
Patterns:
  • November candle  revives possibility of a Long Term Evening (Doji?) Star #M1.
  • Old EOD Channel Line (blue) was the skirmish line for Bulls and Bears, most of last week as studied - Bulls pull ahead by week end #D1
Support & Resistance:
  • Index yo-yo'd about the old EOD channel top (Blue) and used the Daily 13 SMA as support last week #D1. R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1, was resistance not reached.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, stay Bullishly crossed after a mild deflection last week #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA meet up to deflect by week end #D2.


Wrap:
Bulls are dominant across all screens, index deflects the 'short term' 13 SMA.
Bears lose advantage at the skirmish line, but hold below the R1 of the monthly pivot #M1. 




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • October candle is a Closing White Marubozu (Study Links herehere or elsewhere),  same is now active in the long term, November Candle to be watched for evening star possibility #M1.
  • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) is now the support that the Bulls need to stay above, to be able to carry on to the red channel top #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA (8313) on the Week Chart #W1 and above that, the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
  • Bears look to get the Index below the old EOD channel top (blue) failing which, hold the R1 of the monthly pivot #M1, by month end. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
  • Bearish Cross or follow thro' deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD needs to be watched #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS staying in the overbought, continues to work for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above the November Pivot's #M1, and blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel resistance #D1.
Bears seek to remain in the game, by sending the Index below the blue EOD channel top #D1 after defending the R1 of the November pivot #M1.