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Monday, October 27, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Resist - Week 5 of October 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 24 Oct'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Evening Doji Star happens if index closes below 7964 this month - Bulls finally clear this mark #M1.
  • Index Pullback to previous Day Channel bottom is on #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index soars after clearing 7912, the October Wall, but halts at the Month Pivot #M1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW deflect, after the Bulls fight back to close well above  our mark of 7900  #W1.
Indicators:
  • MACD points up while still below the zero line #D2.


Wrap:
Index clears the October Wall (7912) and Bulls dominate all screens, Bears fight to retain hope of an Evening Doji Star happening, by holding the Bulls at the Month Pivot #M1 




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), if month's close is below 7964 #M1.
  • Price Pullback (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to Old Day Channel bottom to be watched for follow-up action #D1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA on the Month Chart #M1 and 7912.
  • Bears look to keep the Index below the Month Pivot or better still, aim for sub 7964 #W1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW stay Bullishly deflected above 7912 (this is also the October Wall) OR cross Bearishly below this number #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap :
Staying above the Month Pivot #M1, and making a new ATH are Priority for the Bulls.
Bears seek to ensure an Evening Doji Star #M1 by closing this week below 7964.