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Monday, May 19, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH - Week 4 of May 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 16 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 16 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 16 May'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls try and get a new ATH - after the Doji we have a High wave last week #W1.
  • Combination of last three weekly candles makes a Three Inside Down #W1 but by a margin too close for Bear Comfort.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index fails to hold gains - the 13 SMA #W1, was near support.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 - on the short term screen - deflected Bullishly last week.. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stagnates in the 60s #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls dominate all 3 screens - Bears defend the current ATH (All time High).




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The High wave Candle Pattern (Study link herehere or elsewhereis active  #W1. 
  • Harami Cross (Study link herehere or elsewhere) seen as a Continuation Pattern produces a Three Inside Down (Study link herehere or elsewhere) by a slender margin - needs watching.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA (1862) #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1841.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD #W1 would cross Bearishly below 1884 or deflect Bullishly above this on Monday.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, moving back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls want to cross and stay above current ATH - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1.