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Monday, December 2, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hanging on above the 13 - Week 1 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 29 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - bears claim honors for November.
  • November's candle close to being a Hanging man. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep Index above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'  #D1.
  • 13 SMA on EOW #W1, was support, 5 EMA also taken by Bulls.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls bounce off the confluence of most of the EMAs that we study on the EOD and also off the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 as done last week.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance of the previous weeks is now exact support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls regain control of the Short Term Screen - Bears again fail at the critical Weekly 13 SMA #W1.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle's effect, now influences the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • To retain the Short term screen, the confluence of a MAs on the EOD is the support the Bulls would want to stay above #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1, Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA, now attempting a Bullish cross and deflection off the zero line #D1.
  • STS is at the resistance line, which succeeds as a strong support for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to keep clear of the 13 SMA on the Week chart - Bear hope hangs on the Hanging Man candle's effect #M1.