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Monday, November 25, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Nifty off 13 - Week 4 of November 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 again as bears claim honors for most of November.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls hold the fall above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'  #D1.
  • 5 EMA on EOW (6114) #W1, was support for half the week, before cracking under Bear Pressure like in the previous week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bears take it below the 50 SMA on the EOD before bouncing off the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls lose control of the Short Term Screen - Bears fail at the critical Weekly 13 SMA #W1.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 34 EMA on the EOW (5899) is the next support the Bulls would want to remain above - to avoid losing the Medium Term too #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1 i.e. 6074, Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
  • Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW (at 5875) #W1, is the next Bear ask. 
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA - crossed bearishly, now look at life below the zero line #D1.
  • STS at the resistance line, a strong support on the way down #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek life above the 13 SMA on the Week chart - Bears look to take the Medium Term Screen & a weekly close below 5875 #W1.