Saturday, April 7, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 April to 06 April, 2012 - Bear revisit.

Our Intra week update (click to see), saw the Bulls on the EOD channel Support. 
We have a Bearish Crossover 5 EMA /13 SMA (EOD screen), towards week close. 
Index has closed however, within our yellow EOD channel.
Bears have revisited the index, with a Bearish Harami on the Week charts.
We analyze the S&P 500, this weekend, to understand the way forward.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 05 April, 2012. 
We have introduced a 34 period Moving VWAP on all screens. 
MVWAP was already studied here (click to see ) or go direct to study (use this link). 
The color of the line for this month is red.
Long term view, from this chart is Bullish as ever, at this time.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 05 April, 2012.  
Last week we noticed that the RSI was below the 3 MA. That was the key.
We have a red candle and another Bearish Harami (all the recent 4, are shown with arrows).
Current status is neutral for this chart, and Bears still have work to do.
Staying above the 5 EMA, Bulls can charge up, to the 'red' month channel top.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 05 April, 2012.  
The last candle of the week slipped below the channel support. It closed just on it.
The Bearish cross of 5EMA below the 13 SMA happened.
Moving VWAP 34, is the next support for the Bulls.

Looking forward: 
Bulls are hanging on to channel support.
The Price is above the M VWAP 34 (EOD), where it took support in the last dip.
If the Bulls stray below the MVWAP 34 (EOD), their next stop is the White(week) Channel line.
Keeping above the 5 EMA on the Week screen, this dip can produce a sling effect, to take the Index to the Red (month) channel top line.
Short Term charts say: "Time to Bear it".