Saturday, April 14, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 April to 13 April, 2012 - Bears have the last word..

Our outlook, for the week gone by, on the S&P 500 was distinctly Bearish (click),
However, we choose to go with the Bulls for the Indian market (click).
Bulls kept up a stand off, while cat and mouse games ruled (click and click).
Right from under the Bull's Noses, Bears took the Index the global way, in the second half of Friday, leaving the Nifty blushing red.
What next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 13 April, 2012. 
The last two red candles are inside the green candle of Feb'2012, in the long term chart above.
The 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA if the Nifty touches 5394 this month.
Currently the Bearish Harami's (Feb/Mar candles) effect, is on.
Nifty closed above the 5 EMA, Bulls remain in control of the Long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 13 April, 2012.
Slipping just under the 34 EMA, Bulls have lost the advantage.
The medium term trend had bucked Global Bearishness, until the second half of Friday.
The Bulls would want to get back above the 34 EMA, while the bears would aim for our channel bottom (black).

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 13 April, 2012.
The journey of the index, to below the green channel bottom, was after quite a fight, as the many touches tell.
The crossovers made by the 5 EMA and 13 SMA were too many in the end, but emphasized their utility.
The MACD stayed stubbornly, sub zero.
Inability of the Index, to get above the 34 EMA, all through the week was the key for Bears.
With the medium term and short term going Bear, Bulls would look at avoiding another Lower Low.

Looking Forward: 
One would watch global cues, as they seem to have a non-technical influence on the Index.
Above 34 EMA on the EOD, the Bulls can wrest back control.
The 200 DMA looks like the next stop once again.
The 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA...long term bullish.
Even if the Nifty loses a steady 50 points every session from here to month end, the 34 EMA would just about get even with the 200 DMA (Nifty would be at 4700 odd, by then :) .......).